The model missed the final outcome (Minerva Punjab win 0–1).
The model had projected East Bengal II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 East Bengal II Minerva Punjab ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Bengal II | 38.5% | 23.1% | +15.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.7% | +3.9 pp | Aligned |
| Minerva Punjab | 31.9% | 51.2% | -19.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Minerva Punjab's win probability at 51.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 19.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Minerva Punjab win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Minerva Punjab than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned East Bengal II; match finished Minerva Punjab
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on East Bengal II by 19.3 percentage points (57.8% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · East Bengal II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Minerva Punjab 31.9%
- xG · East Bengal II 1.37 — Minerva Punjab 1.23
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · East Bengal II 3.82 · Draw 3.43 · Minerva Punjab 1.72
- Implied 1X2 · East Bengal II 23.1% · Draw 25.7% · Minerva Punjab 51.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · East Bengal II 3.82 · Draw 3.43 · Minerva Punjab 1.72
- Implied 1X2 · East Bengal II 23.1% · Draw 25.7% · Minerva Punjab 51.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 30, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Minerva Punjab win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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