Gateshead vs Altrincham Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gateshead
Sep 29, 2026 - 18:45
1.25 1.35
Altrincham
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.50
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gateshead opened at -0.25 against Altrincham in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Gateshead -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.34
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.34 AH points more toward Altrincham than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Gateshead -0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.34
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.52
Price Advantage
+27.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.56 / 1.78 -0.25 3.20 / 1.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.74 / 1.85 -0.50 3.18 / 1.74 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 2.75 / 1.80 -0.50 3.10 / 1.85 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.57 / 1.79 -0.25 2.60 / 1.78 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.75 / 1.80 -0.25 2.70 / 1.57 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.66 / 1.78 -0.25 2.74 / 1.54 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.09
xG 1.25 / 1.35 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.20
Gateshead @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.52
Gateshead @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.20 vs 2.52
Market price is 27.0% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.60 6.90
-1.75 8.30 4.75
-1.50 6.25 3.74
-1.25 5.80 3.35
-1.00 5.35 2.97
-0.75 3.70 2.35
-0.25 2.60 1.78
0 2.26 1.53
+0.25 1.86 1.40
+0.75 1.49 1.20
+1.00 1.30 1.09
+1.25 1.25 1.07
+1.50 1.19 1.06
+1.75 1.12 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.60 3.70
-1.25 6.00 3.30
-1.00 5.75 3.00
-0.75 3.80 2.35
-0.50 3.10 1.85
-0.25 2.75 1.78
0 2.38 1.55
+0.25 2.02 1.42
+0.50 1.95 1.35
+0.75 1.58 1.25
+1.00 1.38 1.14
+1.25 1.32 1.12
+1.50 1.26 1.11

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.74 1.54
0 2.93 1.33
+0.25 2.27 1.38

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.70 1.57
+0.25 2.37 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.50 3.58
-1.50 8.10 2.92
-1.25 7.70 2.62
-1.00 7.20 2.30
-0.75 4.75 1.91
-0.25 3.20 1.52
0 2.90 1.33
+0.25 2.24 1.26
+0.75 1.72 1.12
+1.00 1.49 1.03
+1.25 1.38 1.02
+1.50 1.31 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.01 1.97
-0.50 3.18 1.74
-0.25 3.58 1.55
0 3.15 1.35
+0.25 2.45 1.28
+0.50 2.09 1.34
+0.75 1.85 1.23
Primary Bets
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