FC Halifax Town vs Sutton Utd Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

FC Halifax Town
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Sutton Utd
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium The Shay

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

FC Halifax Town opened at 0 against Sutton Utd in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward FC Halifax Town from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.23
FC Halifax Town -0.23

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.43 / 1.17
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
FC Halifax Town -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.02
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.02 AH points more toward Sutton Utd than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Sutton Utd +0.25
@ 2.63
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.02
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.98
Price Advantage
+32.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:51
Opening
0
07:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.71 / 1.96 -0.25 1.84 / 2.46 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.50 / 1.85 +0.25 1.50 / 1.89 — 0
Bet365 0 1.72 / 2.08 -0.25 1.90 / 2.60 — -0.25
1xBet 0 1.71 / 1.96 -0.25 1.85 / 2.48 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.02 / 2.40 -0.25 1.90 / 2.55 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.97 / 2.38 -0.25 1.85 / 2.56 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.30 9.70
-1.75 5.40 8.40
-1.50 4.15 6.20
-1.25 3.72 5.71
-1.00 3.28 5.20
-0.75 2.47 3.51
-0.25 1.85 2.48
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.44 1.81
+0.75 1.22 1.44
+1.00 1.10 1.25
+1.25 1.08 1.20
+1.50 1.06 1.16

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 6.25
-1.25 3.55 5.75
-1.00 3.30 5.25
-0.75 2.50 3.55
-0.50 2.15 3.00
-0.25 1.90 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.90
+0.50 1.38 1.68
+0.75 1.27 1.50
+1.00 1.16 1.32
+1.25 1.14 1.27
+1.50 1.12 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.85 2.56
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.43 1.82

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.15 2.70
-0.25 1.90 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.87
+0.50 1.45 1.67

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.40 8.40
-1.50 4.15 6.20
-1.25 3.72 5.70
-1.00 3.28 5.20
-0.75 2.49 3.50
-0.25 1.84 2.46
0 1.60 2.13
+0.25 1.43 1.78
+0.75 1.22 1.42
+1.00 1.10 1.25
+1.25 1.08 1.20
+1.50 1.06 1.16

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.65 3.75
-0.50 2.24 3.00
-0.25 1.96 2.63
0 1.67 2.26
+0.25 1.50 1.89
+0.50 1.40 1.68
+0.75 1.28 1.50
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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