The model missed the final outcome (Foggia win 2–0).
The model had projected Sorrento at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sorrento Foggia ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foggia | 32.4% | 37.7% | -5.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.6% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Sorrento | 38.0% | 30.7% | +7.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Sorrento's win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.7%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Foggia win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sorrento.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Sorrento by 7.3 percentage points (30.7% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Foggia 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Sorrento 38.0%
- xG · Foggia 1.24 — Sorrento 1.36
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Foggia 2.46 · Draw 2.94 · Sorrento 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Foggia 37.7% · Draw 31.6% · Sorrento 30.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Foggia 2.46 · Draw 2.94 · Sorrento 3.02
- Implied 1X2 · Foggia 37.7% · Draw 31.6% · Sorrento 30.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Foggia win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie C - Girone C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bari | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| 2 | Sorrento | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 3 | Potenza | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | AZ Picerno | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Casertana | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Inter U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Casarano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Salernitana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | SS Monopoli | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 | Cavese | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Catania | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Barletta | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 14 | Scafatese | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Team Altamura | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Savoia | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 17 | Foggia | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Picerno | 7 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 12 |
| 2 | Potenza | 6 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 13 |
| 3 | Cavese | 7 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 7 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Casertana | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Inter U23 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Giugliano | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4 |
| 8 | Bari | 7 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | Sorrento | 6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 10 | Catania | 6 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 7 |
| 11 | Salernitana | 7 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 | Barletta | 6 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 13 | Casarano | 6 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Savoia | 7 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Scafatese | 6 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Crotone | 7 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | SS Monopoli | 6 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 18 | Cosenza | 7 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 2 |
| 19 | Foggia | 6 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 20 | Team Altamura | 6 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 7 |
