Barrow vs Aldershot Town Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Barrow
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Aldershot Town
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium Holker Street

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Barrow opened at -0.25 against Aldershot Town in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Barrow -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.39 / 1.21
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Barrow -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Aldershot Town than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Aldershot Town +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+68.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:51
Opening
-0.25
22:59
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.65 / 2.88 -0.25 1.53 / 3.20 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 -0.25 1.75 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.64 / 2.87 -0.25 1.54 / 3.20 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.97 8.00
-1.25 2.69 7.50
-1.00 2.39 7.10
-0.75 1.96 4.70
-0.25 1.54 3.20
0 1.33 2.81
+0.25 1.26 2.19
+0.75 1.12 1.68
+1.00 1.04 1.48
+1.25 1.03 1.36
+1.50 1.02 1.30

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.45 6.80
-1.25 3.10 6.40
-1.00 2.75 5.90
-0.75 2.30 4.10
-0.50 2.00 3.30
-0.25 1.75 2.85
0 1.50 2.50
+0.25 1.40 2.05
+0.50 1.32 1.80
+0.75 1.23 1.60
+1.00 1.13 1.42
+1.25 1.12 1.35
+1.50 1.10 1.30

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.97 8.10
-1.25 2.66 7.50
-1.00 2.36 7.20
-0.75 1.95 4.75
-0.25 1.53 3.20
0 1.33 2.83
+0.25 1.26 2.21
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.03 1.49
+1.25 1.03 1.37
+1.50 1.02 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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