Tamworth vs Wealdstone Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Tamworth
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Wealdstone
Kick-off 11:30 Stadium The Lamb Ground

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Tamworth opened at -0.25 against Wealdstone in the National League. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.34 / 1.26
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Tamworth -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Wealdstone than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Wealdstone +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+72.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:51
Opening
-0.25
07:04
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
11:30
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 -0.25 1.66 / 2.74 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.69 / 2.91 -0.25 1.72 / 2.99 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 -0.25 1.65 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.63 / 2.88 -0.25 1.66 / 2.74 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 6.40
-1.25 2.87 5.95
-1.00 2.60 5.55
-0.75 2.10 3.86
-0.25 1.66 2.74
0 1.44 2.42
+0.25 1.35 1.99
+0.75 1.18 1.59
+1.00 1.08 1.41
+1.25 1.07 1.32
+1.50 1.05 1.26

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.10 7.00
-1.25 2.85 6.80
-1.00 2.50 6.25
-0.75 2.10 4.25
-0.50 1.88 3.45
-0.25 1.65 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.20
+0.50 1.30 1.92
+0.75 1.21 1.70
+1.00 1.12 1.50
+1.25 1.10 1.40
+1.50 1.10 1.35

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 6.40
-1.25 2.88 5.95
-1.00 2.60 5.55
-0.75 2.10 3.86
-0.25 1.66 2.74
0 1.44 2.42
+0.25 1.35 1.99
+0.75 1.18 1.59
+1.00 1.08 1.41
+1.25 1.07 1.32
+1.50 1.05 1.26

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.95 3.36
-0.25 1.72 2.99
0 1.50 2.64
+0.25 1.40 2.16
+0.50 1.33 1.90
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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