Hoffenheim II vs SV Meppen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Hoffenheim II
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 1-0)
SV Meppen
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Dietmar-Hopp-Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Hoffenheim II opened at -0.25 against SV Meppen in the 3. Liga. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.29 / 1.31
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Hoffenheim II -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.27
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.27 AH points more toward SV Meppen than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
SV Meppen +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.27
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+86.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:50
Opening
-0.25
10:58
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.72 / 1.95 -0.25 1.50 / 3.20 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 2.68 -0.25 1.71 / 3.02 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.68 -0.25 1.70 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet 0 1.72 / 1.95 -0.25 1.52 / 3.14 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.95 / 2.42 -0.25 1.75 / 2.72 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.56 / 2.26 -0.25 1.53 / 2.26 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 4.55 10.00
-1.75 3.34 9.30
-1.50 2.78 7.50
-1.25 2.49 7.09
-1.00 2.21 6.65
-0.75 1.90 4.54
-0.25 1.52 3.14
0 1.35 2.83
+0.25 1.27 2.24
+0.75 1.13 1.73
+1.00 1.05 1.53
+1.25 1.04 1.42
+1.50 1.03 1.34

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.10 6.60
-1.25 2.85 6.25
-1.00 2.50 5.90
-0.75 2.15 4.15
-0.50 1.92 3.45
-0.25 1.70 3.00
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.38 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.88
+0.75 1.22 1.68
+1.00 1.13 1.50
+1.25 1.12 1.40
+1.50 1.11 1.35

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.53 2.26
0 1.36 2.15
+0.25 1.32 1.84

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.72
+0.25 1.44 2.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.28 9.30
-1.50 2.74 7.80
-1.25 2.43 7.30
-1.00 2.15 6.85
-0.75 1.85 4.65
-0.25 1.50 3.20
0 1.33 2.90
+0.25 1.26 2.28
+0.75 1.12 1.77
+1.00 1.04 1.56
+1.25 1.03 1.44
+1.50 1.02 1.35

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.18 3.73
-0.50 1.93 3.38
-0.25 1.71 3.02
0 1.49 2.66
+0.25 1.39 2.18
+0.50 1.33 1.92
+0.75 1.26 1.71
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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