Gandzasar vs Shirak Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Gandzasar
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Shirak
Kick-off 16:00 Stadium Stadion Gandzasar

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Gandzasar opened at -0.25 against Shirak in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Gandzasar -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 3 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Shirak than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Shirak +0.25
@ 2.94
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+72.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
08:25
Opening
-0.25
14:22
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.94 / 2.43 -0.25 1.77 / 2.74 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.97 / 2.53 -0.25 1.86 / 2.94 — 0
Bet365 0 1.85 / 1.95 0 1.85 / 1.95 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.93 / 2.49 -0.25 1.80 / 2.74 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 9.10
-1.50 3.92 7.10
-1.25 3.50 6.60
-1.00 3.14 6.15
-0.75 2.42 4.10
-0.25 1.80 2.74
0 1.50 2.38
+0.25 1.35 1.88
+0.75 1.16 1.44
+1.00 1.06 1.27
+1.25 1.05 1.22
+1.50 1.04 1.18

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.85 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 9.10
-1.50 3.92 7.10
-1.25 3.50 6.60
-1.00 3.14 6.15
-0.75 2.42 4.10
-0.25 1.77 2.74
0 1.50 2.38
+0.25 1.35 1.85
+0.75 1.16 1.44
+1.00 1.06 1.27
+1.25 1.05 1.22
+1.50 1.04 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.53 3.20
-0.50 2.16 3.41
-0.25 1.86 2.94
0 1.53 2.49
+0.25 1.38 1.96
+0.50 1.29 1.68
+0.75 1.28 1.49
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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