Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Tepatitlán
Kick-off 01:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Alebrijes de Oaxaca opened at -0.50 against Tepatitlán in the Liga de Expansión MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Tepatitlán from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.25
Alebrijes de Oaxaca +0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.16 / 1.44
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Alebrijes de Oaxaca -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 8 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.50
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.50 AH points more toward Tepatitlán than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Tepatitlán +0.25
@ 2.97
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.50
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.54
Price Advantage
+92.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.50
00:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.53 / 2.38 0 1.53 / 2.38 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 2.03 / 4.95 -0.25 1.72 / 2.78 — +0.50
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.85 / 3.96 -0.25 1.82 / 2.97 — +0.25
1xBet -0.75 2.03 / 4.94 -0.25 1.74 / 2.78 — +0.50
Unibet +0.50 1.21 / 1.93 +0.50 1.21 / 1.93 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.72 / 1.95 +0.25 1.72 / 1.95 — 0
Superbet -0.50 1.80 / 3.40 -0.50 1.80 / 3.40 — 0
BetVictor +0.25 1.36 / 2.19 -0.25 1.76 / 2.77 — -0.50
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.53 2.38

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.40 10.00
-2.00 7.40 9.10
-1.75 4.94 8.60
-1.50 3.82 7.40
-1.25 3.34 6.89
-1.00 2.97 6.40
-0.75 2.30 4.14
-0.25 1.74 2.78
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.34 1.93
+0.75 1.16 1.49
+1.00 1.05 1.30
+1.25 1.04 1.24
+1.50 1.03 1.19
+2.00 1.02 1.03

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.76 2.77
0 1.50 2.37
+0.25 1.37 1.92

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.75 2.00
+0.25 1.72 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.95 8.60
-1.50 3.82 7.40
-1.25 3.34 6.90
-1.00 2.97 6.40
-0.75 2.30 4.15
-0.25 1.72 2.78
0 1.48 2.41
+0.25 1.34 1.91
+0.75 1.16 1.49
+1.00 1.05 1.30
+1.25 1.04 1.24
+1.50 1.03 1.19

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.48 4.33
-1.00 3.07 4.88
-0.75 2.43 4.38
-0.50 2.09 3.38
-0.25 1.82 2.97
0 1.54 2.54
+0.25 1.41 2.04
+0.50 1.33 1.78
+0.75 1.22 1.58
+1.00 1.17 1.38
+1.25 1.20 1.31

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.15 4.80
-0.50 1.80 3.40
+0.50 1.23 1.80
+1.50 1.11 1.26

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.10 7.00
-0.50 1.75 3.80
+0.50 1.21 1.93
+1.50 1.06 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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