Llanuwchllyn vs Rhyl Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Llanuwchllyn
Aug 22, 2026 - 13:30 ABD
1.33 1.27
Rhyl
Opening
-0.50
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
-0.25
PRE1 consensus
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 3 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
+0.25
Toward Away · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Llanuwchllyn opened at -0.50 against Rhyl in the FAW Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Rhyl from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Llanuwchllyn -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Rhyl than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Llanuwchllyn -0.25
@ 2.45
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+7.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.38 / 1.82 -0.25 2.41 / 1.81 -0.25 0
1xBet 0 2.18 / 1.61 -0.25 2.45 / 1.81 -0.25 -0.25
Superbet -0.50 2.67 / 2.00 -0.50 2.70 / 2.02 -0.50 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Closing consensus
Market Odds
2.41
Llanuwchllyn @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Llanuwchllyn @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.41 vs 2.27
Market price is 6.2% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.40 3.70
-1.00 4.65 2.97
-0.75 3.28 2.35
-0.25 2.45 1.81
0 2.16 1.60
+0.25 1.81 1.47
+0.75 1.47 1.25
+1.00 1.30 1.12
+1.50 1.20 1.09

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.40 3.70
-1.00 4.65 2.97
-0.75 3.28 2.35
-0.25 2.41 1.81
0 2.16 1.60
+0.25 1.81 1.45
+0.75 1.47 1.25
+1.00 1.30 1.12
+1.50 1.20 1.09

Superbet Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.70 2.02
+0.50 1.63 1.35
Primary Bets
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