La Roche VF vs Valenciennes Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

La Roche VF
Final Score
3 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Valenciennes
Kick-off 12:45 Stadium Stade Henri-Desgranges

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

La Roche VF opened at -0.25 against Valenciennes in the Ligue 3. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.34 / 1.26
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
La Roche VF -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Valenciennes than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Valenciennes +0.25
@ 2.79
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.80
Price Advantage
+55.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
10:35
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
12:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.94 / 2.43 -0.25 1.84 / 2.59 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.70 / 2.13 -0.25 1.96 / 2.79 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 2.85 -0.25 1.95 / 2.60 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.96 / 2.43 -0.25 1.86 / 2.59 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.33 7.00
-1.25 3.88 6.45
-1.00 3.42 5.90
-0.75 2.56 3.88
-0.25 1.86 2.59
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.39 1.80
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.05 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.00 5.90
-1.25 3.55 5.75
-1.00 3.30 5.25
-0.75 2.60 3.55
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.95 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.85
+0.50 1.38 1.65
+0.75 1.27 1.48
+1.00 1.16 1.32
+1.25 1.14 1.27
+1.50 1.13 1.23

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.33 7.00
-1.25 3.90 6.45
-1.00 3.42 5.90
-0.75 2.56 3.86
-0.25 1.84 2.59
0 1.56 2.21
+0.25 1.39 1.78
+0.75 1.18 1.40
+1.00 1.07 1.23
+1.25 1.05 1.18
+1.50 1.04 1.14

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.74 4.14
-0.50 2.28 3.23
-0.25 1.96 2.79
0 1.62 2.33
+0.25 1.45 1.88
+0.50 1.35 1.65
+0.75 1.24 1.47
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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