Kreuzlingen vs Brühl Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kreuzlingen
Sep 30, 2026 - 18:00
1.21 1.39
Brühl
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
—
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
2 / 4 books · 50% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kreuzlingen opened at -0.25 against Brühl in the 1. Liga Promotion. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 4 valid books, with 50% agreement.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
Kreuzlingen +0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Kreuzlingen -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.41
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 2 / 4 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.41 AH points more toward Brühl than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Brühl +0.25
@ 1.70
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.41
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.60
Price Advantage
+6.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 4 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.69 / 1.68 -0.25 2.69 / 1.68 — 0
Bet365 0 2.00 / 1.80 0 2.00 / 1.80 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.65 / 1.70 -0.25 2.65 / 1.70 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.75 / 1.59 0 1.75 / 1.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.16
xG 1.21 / 1.39 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.69
Kreuzlingen @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.66
Kreuzlingen @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.69 vs 2.66
Market price is 1.1% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.70 6.05
-2.00 8.40 5.40
-1.50 5.80 3.20
-1.00 5.10 2.62
-0.75 3.58 2.17
-0.25 2.65 1.70
0 2.34 1.50
+0.25 1.94 1.39
+0.75 1.55 1.21
+1.00 1.38 1.10
+1.50 1.26 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
0 2.00 1.80

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.75 1.59

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 8.60 5.30
-1.50 5.90 3.20
-1.00 5.15 2.59
-0.75 3.72 2.14
-0.25 2.69 1.68
0 2.39 1.48
+0.25 1.96 1.36
+0.75 1.57 1.20
+1.00 1.39 1.10
+1.50 1.26 1.07
Primary Bets
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