Real Sociedad II vs Mallorca Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Real Sociedad II
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Mallorca
Kick-off 12:00 Stadium Estadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Real Sociedad II opened at -0.25 against Mallorca in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.12 / 1.12
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Real Sociedad II -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Mallorca than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Real Sociedad II -0.25
@ 3.07
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.40
Price Advantage
+27.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:58
Opening
-0.25
10:26
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.15 / 1.60 -0.25 2.99 / 1.64 — 0
1xBet 0 2.43 / 1.59 -0.25 3.07 / 1.79 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.95 / 1.85 -0.25 2.95 / 1.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.77 / 1.77 -0.25 2.86 / 1.61 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.70
-1.00 5.80 3.00
-0.75 4.00 2.36
-0.25 3.07 1.79
0 2.52 1.55
+0.25 1.92 1.40
+0.75 1.51 1.20
+1.00 1.33 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.06

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.86 1.61
0 2.76 1.37
+0.25 2.13 1.35

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.40 2.12
-0.25 2.95 1.85
+0.25 2.00 1.42
+0.50 1.75 1.34

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.80 3.42
-1.25 7.30 3.05
-1.00 6.80 2.66
-0.75 4.45 2.14
-0.25 2.99 1.64
0 2.66 1.43
+0.25 2.05 1.31
+0.75 1.57 1.14
+1.00 1.37 1.04
+1.25 1.28 1.03
+1.50 1.23 1.02
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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