Las Palmas vs Burgos Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Las Palmas
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-0)
Burgos
Kick-off 16:30 Stadium Gran Canaria

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Las Palmas opened at -0.25 against Burgos in the Segunda División. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.09 / 1.15
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Las Palmas -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Burgos than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Burgos +0.25
@ 3.20
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.66
Price Advantage
+92.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:58
Opening
-0.25
13:46
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
—
Need 2+ sharp books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.69 / 3.14 -0.25 1.61 / 3.20 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.72 / 3.10 -0.25 1.72 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.78 / 3.14 -0.25 1.75 / 3.14 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 3.15 -0.25 1.78 / 3.15 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.52 8.20
-1.25 3.22 7.75
-1.00 2.90 7.30
-0.75 2.23 4.74
-0.25 1.75 3.14
0 1.45 2.85
+0.25 1.27 2.13
+0.75 1.12 1.54
+1.00 1.03 1.37
+1.25 1.02 1.31
+1.50 1.02 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.30 4.65
-0.50 1.98 3.55
-0.25 1.72 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.08
+0.50 1.27 1.82
+0.75 1.18 1.60

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.78 3.15
+0.25 1.38 2.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.35 8.50
-1.25 3.04 8.10
-1.00 2.74 7.60
-0.75 2.13 4.90
-0.25 1.61 3.20
0 1.35 2.74
+0.25 1.26 2.07
+0.75 1.11 1.59
+1.00 1.03 1.41
+1.25 1.02 1.30
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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