Stevenage vs Wigan Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Stevenage
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.14 1.37
Wigan
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Stevenage opened at -0.25 against Wigan in the League One. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
Stevenage +0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Stevenage -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Wigan than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Wigan +0.25
@ 3.11
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.45
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.56
Price Advantage
+99.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.68 -0.25 1.74 / 2.84 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.87 / 2.93 -0.25 1.81 / 3.11 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.75 -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.85 / 2.68 -0.25 1.78 / 2.84 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.87 / 2.75 -0.25 1.87 / 2.75 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.80 / 2.75 -0.25 1.75 / 2.91 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.20
xG 1.14 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.81
Stevenage @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.78
Stevenage @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.81 vs 2.78
Market price is 34.9% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 9.10
-1.50 3.90 7.40
-1.25 3.50 6.95
-1.00 3.05 6.45
-0.75 2.33 4.20
-0.25 1.78 2.84
0 1.49 2.48
+0.25 1.34 1.95
+0.75 1.15 1.48
+1.00 1.05 1.28
+1.25 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.55 6.80
-1.00 3.30 6.80
-0.75 2.42 4.40
-0.50 2.08 3.45
-0.25 1.80 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 2.05
+0.50 1.30 1.72
+0.75 1.20 1.52
+1.00 1.10 1.32
+1.25 1.10 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.41 4.40
-0.50 2.03 3.35
-0.25 1.75 2.91
0 1.47 2.44
+0.25 1.34 1.93
+0.50 1.26 1.67
+0.75 1.16 1.48

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.75
+0.25 1.44 1.90

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.00 9.10
-1.50 3.90 7.40
-1.25 3.50 6.95
-1.00 3.05 6.45
-0.75 2.33 4.20
-0.25 1.74 2.84
0 1.49 2.48
+0.25 1.34 1.91
+0.75 1.15 1.48
+1.00 1.05 1.28
+1.25 1.04 1.22
+1.50 1.03 1.18

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.49 4.73
-0.50 2.09 3.58
-0.25 1.81 3.11
0 1.50 2.62
+0.25 1.37 2.05
+0.50 1.29 1.75
+0.75 1.19 1.54
Primary Bets
More