AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

AFC Wimbledon
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00 PST
1.14 1.09
Stevenage
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
3 / 4 books · 75% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

AFC Wimbledon opened at 0 against Stevenage in the League One. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 3 of 4 valid books, with 75% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
AFC Wimbledon 0
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 3 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward AFC Wimbledon than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
AFC Wimbledon 0
@ 2.11
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.93
Price Advantage
+9.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
3 / 4 valid books · 75% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 2.02 / 1.73 0 2.02 / 1.73 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.11 / 1.76 0 2.11 / 1.76 — 0
1xBet 0 2.02 / 1.73 0 2.02 / 1.73 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.45 / 2.07 -0.25 2.45 / 2.07 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.14 / 1.09 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.11
AFC Wimbledon @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.93
AFC Wimbledon @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.11 vs 1.93
Market price is 9.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 6.60
-1.50 6.20 5.00
-1.25 5.70 4.54
-1.00 5.20 4.05
-0.75 3.44 2.84
-0.25 2.42 2.02
0 2.02 1.73
+0.25 1.66 1.51
+0.75 1.33 1.23
+1.00 1.17 1.10
+1.25 1.13 1.08
+1.50 1.10 1.06

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.85 2.40
-0.25 2.45 2.07
+0.25 1.72 1.53
+0.50 1.55 1.42

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.30 6.60
-1.50 6.20 5.00
-1.25 5.70 4.55
-1.00 5.20 4.05
-0.75 3.44 2.84
-0.25 2.38 2.02
0 2.02 1.73
+0.25 1.66 1.48
+0.75 1.33 1.23
+1.00 1.17 1.10
+1.25 1.13 1.08
+1.50 1.10 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.53 4.33
-0.75 3.72 3.05
-0.50 2.95 2.48
-0.25 2.53 2.12
0 2.11 1.76
+0.25 1.74 1.53
+0.50 1.55 1.41
+0.75 1.38 1.27
+1.00 1.22 1.15
Primary Bets
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