Derby vs Wrexham Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Derby
Oct 10, 2026 - 14:00
1.13 1.37
Wrexham
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
0
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
0
5 / 6 books · 83% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Derby opened at 0 against Wrexham in the Championship. The current market consensus is 0. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
Derby +0.21

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Derby 0
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Wrexham than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Wrexham 0
@ 1.90
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.73
Price Advantage
+9.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.89 / 1.83 0 1.89 / 1.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.98 / 1.87 0 1.99 / 1.86 — 0
Bet365 0 1.95 / 1.90 0 1.95 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet 0 1.89 / 1.83 0 1.89 / 1.83 — 0
Betano +0.25 1.72 / 1.62 +0.25 1.72 / 1.62 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.87 / 1.80 0 1.87 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.21
xG 1.13 / 1.37 · pre-match
Market Handicap
0
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.99
Derby @ 0 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.37
Derby @ 0 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.99 vs 2.37
Market price is 16.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 9.90
-1.75 6.75 6.88
-1.50 5.20 4.95
-1.25 4.74 4.54
-1.00 4.30 4.10
-0.75 3.08 2.93
-0.25 2.22 2.12
0 1.89 1.83
+0.25 1.60 1.60
+0.75 1.31 1.28
+1.00 1.16 1.14
+1.25 1.13 1.12
+1.50 1.11 1.10
+1.75 1.06 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.50 5.50
-1.25 5.00 4.80
-1.00 4.40 4.25
-0.75 3.30 3.10
-0.50 2.60 2.50
-0.25 2.25 2.20
0 1.95 1.90
+0.25 1.65 1.62
+0.50 1.50 1.48
+0.75 1.35 1.32
+1.00 1.21 1.20
+1.25 1.18 1.17
+1.50 1.15 1.15

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.25 5.25 4.90
-1.00 4.70 4.40
-0.75 3.20 3.05
-0.50 2.57 2.47
-0.25 2.23 2.13
0 1.87 1.80
+0.25 1.61 1.56
+0.50 1.46 1.43
+0.75 1.31 1.29
+1.00 1.16 1.14
+1.25 1.13 1.11

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.40 3.05
-0.50 2.75 2.52
-0.25 2.37 2.18
+0.25 1.72 1.62
+0.50 1.55 1.47
+0.75 1.40 1.34

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.75 6.45
-1.50 5.20 4.95
-1.25 4.75 4.55
-1.00 4.30 4.10
-0.75 3.08 2.93
-0.25 2.17 2.12
0 1.89 1.83
+0.25 1.60 1.57
+0.75 1.31 1.28
+1.00 1.16 1.14
+1.25 1.13 1.12
+1.50 1.11 1.10
+1.75 1.05 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.70 4.41
-0.75 3.35 3.13
-0.50 2.73 2.56
-0.25 2.36 2.21
0 1.99 1.86
+0.25 1.69 1.61
+0.50 1.53 1.47
+0.75 1.37 1.33
+1.00 1.22 1.20
Primary Bets
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