Birmingham vs Middlesbrough Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Birmingham
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Middlesbrough
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium St. Andrew's Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Birmingham opened at -0.25 against Middlesbrough in the Championship. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Middlesbrough from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.30
Birmingham +0.30

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.24 / 1.57
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Birmingham 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.30
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.30 AH points more toward Middlesbrough than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Middlesbrough 0
@ 1.86
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.30
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+11.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
09:54
Opening
-0.25
10:11
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.40 / 1.93 0 1.95 / 1.78 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.18 / 1.71 0 2.05 / 1.86 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 2.02 / 1.82 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.46 / 1.93 0 1.95 / 1.78 — +0.25
Betano +0.25 1.82 / 1.55 +0.25 1.75 / 1.62 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.42 / 1.94 0 1.92 / 1.76 — +0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 10.50 9.20
-2.00 9.30 8.50
-1.75 6.60 5.74
-1.50 5.10 4.45
-1.25 4.70 4.05
-1.00 4.25 3.58
-0.75 3.10 2.75
-0.25 2.28 2.02
0 1.95 1.78
+0.25 1.66 1.57
+0.75 1.35 1.28
+1.00 1.21 1.15
+1.25 1.16 1.12
+1.50 1.14 1.10
+1.75 1.07 1.05

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 6.00
-1.50 5.25 4.50
-1.25 4.65 4.15
-1.00 4.25 3.70
-0.75 3.30 2.85
-0.50 2.60 2.38
-0.25 2.30 2.10
0 2.02 1.82
+0.25 1.70 1.60
+0.50 1.55 1.48
+0.75 1.40 1.32
+1.00 1.26 1.21
+1.25 1.22 1.18
+1.50 1.19 1.16
+1.75 1.12 1.10

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.25 4.90 4.25
-1.00 4.40 3.80
-0.75 3.15 2.82
-0.50 2.56 2.34
-0.25 2.24 2.05
0 1.92 1.76
+0.25 1.66 1.55
+0.50 1.51 1.43
+0.75 1.36 1.29
+1.00 1.21 1.16
+1.25 1.17 1.13

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.30 2.90
-0.50 2.70 2.42
-0.25 2.37 2.12
+0.25 1.75 1.62
+0.50 1.60 1.50
+0.75 1.44 1.36

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 5.75
-1.50 5.10 4.45
-1.25 4.70 4.05
-1.00 4.25 3.58
-0.75 3.10 2.75
-0.25 2.23 2.02
0 1.95 1.78
+0.25 1.66 1.54
+0.75 1.35 1.28
+1.00 1.21 1.15
+1.25 1.16 1.12
+1.50 1.14 1.10
+1.75 1.07 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.75 4.04
-0.75 3.39 3.01
-0.50 2.77 2.51
-0.25 2.41 2.18
0 2.05 1.86
+0.25 1.75 1.63
+0.50 1.58 1.49
+0.75 1.42 1.35
+1.00 1.27 1.21
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More