Preston vs Wolves Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Preston
Final Score
1 – 3
(HT 0-1)
Wolves
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium Deepdale

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Preston opened at -0.25 against Wolves in the Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.49
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Preston -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.32
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.32 AH points more toward Wolves than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Preston -0.25
@ 3.19
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.32
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.45
Price Advantage
+30.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:26
Opening
-0.25
12:01
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.97 / 1.65 -0.25 2.97 / 1.66 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.73 / 1.50 -0.25 3.19 / 1.79 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.97 / 1.65 -0.25 2.97 / 1.66 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.90 / 1.71 -0.25 2.91 / 1.71 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 3.42
-1.25 7.19 3.08
-1.00 6.70 2.82
-0.75 4.40 2.17
-0.25 2.97 1.66
0 2.56 1.40
+0.25 2.02 1.30
+0.75 1.55 1.14
+1.00 1.40 1.05
+1.25 1.29 1.03
+1.50 1.24 1.03

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.25 2.29
-0.50 3.30 1.95
-0.25 2.91 1.71
0 2.49 1.45
+0.25 1.99 1.34
+0.50 1.73 1.27
+0.75 1.53 1.17

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.70 3.42
-1.25 7.20 3.10
-1.00 6.70 2.82
-0.75 4.40 2.20
-0.25 2.97 1.66
0 2.56 1.40
+0.25 2.02 1.30
+0.75 1.57 1.14
+1.00 1.40 1.05
+1.25 1.30 1.03
+1.50 1.24 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.67 2.08
-0.25 3.19 1.79
0 2.71 1.51
+0.25 2.12 1.38
+0.50 1.83 1.31
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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