AI correctly predicted the Killas W win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Killas W Killas W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Killas W | 36.1% | 42.1% | -6.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.8% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Flamengo FBC W | 34.2% | 34.2% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Killas W's win probability at 42.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Killas W win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Killas W. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Killas W higher (42.1% vs model 36.1%, 6.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Killas W win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Killas W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Flamengo FBC W 34.2%
- xG · Killas W 1.32 — Flamengo FBC W 1.28
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Killas W 2.11 · Draw 3.74 · Flamengo FBC W 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Killas W 42.1% · Draw 23.8% · Flamengo FBC W 34.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Killas W 2.11 · Draw 3.74 · Flamengo FBC W 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Killas W 42.1% · Draw 23.8% · Flamengo FBC W 34.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 25, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Killas W win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. de Deportes W | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Atl. Andahuaylas W | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 |
| 4 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Defensores W | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Killas W | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. de Deportes W | 10 | 55 | 4 | +51 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Cristal W | 10 | 30 | 9 | +21 | 21 |
| 3 | Alianza Lima W | 10 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo FBC W | 10 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar W | 10 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | Yanapuma W | 10 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 16 |
| 7 | Atl. Andahuaylas W | 10 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 25 |
| 8 | Killas W | 10 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 5 |
| 9 | Defensores W | 10 | 11 | 29 | -18 | 7 |
| 10 | UNSAAC W | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| 11 | Carlos Mannucci W | 10 | 4 | 43 | -39 | 4 |
