Puskas Academy vs Budapest Honved Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Puskas Academy
Final Score
3 – 1
(HT 2-1)
Budapest Honved
Kick-off 17:30 Stadium Pancho Aréna

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Puskas Academy opened at -0.25 against Budapest Honved in the NB I. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.16
Puskas Academy -0.16

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.39 / 1.21
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Puskas Academy -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.09
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.09 AH points more toward Budapest Honved than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Budapest Honved +0.25
@ 3.12
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.09
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+64.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
13:32
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.72 / 2.66 -0.25 1.67 / 2.83 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 2.86 -0.25 1.76 / 3.12 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.74 / 2.66 -0.25 1.68 / 2.83 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 2.80 -0.25 1.82 / 2.75 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.15 8.60
-1.50 3.34 6.65
-1.25 2.97 6.25
-1.00 2.66 5.85
-0.75 2.17 4.05
-0.25 1.68 2.83
0 1.44 2.49
+0.25 1.33 2.00
+0.75 1.16 1.55
+1.00 1.07 1.37
+1.25 1.06 1.30
+1.50 1.05 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.30 6.00
-1.25 3.00 7.00
-1.00 2.60 6.60
-0.75 2.15 4.40
-0.50 1.98 3.45
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.30 1.82
+0.75 1.20 1.68
+1.00 1.11 1.48
+1.25 1.10 1.38
+1.50 1.12 1.32

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.82 2.75
+0.25 1.44 1.95

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 4.15 8.60
-1.50 3.34 6.65
-1.25 3.04 6.25
-1.00 2.69 5.85
-0.75 2.17 4.05
-0.25 1.67 2.83
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.33 1.98
+0.75 1.16 1.55
+1.00 1.07 1.36
+1.25 1.06 1.29
+1.50 1.05 1.24

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.36 4.23
-0.50 2.04 3.58
-0.25 1.76 3.12
0 1.49 2.67
+0.25 1.37 2.10
+0.50 1.30 1.82
+0.75 1.23 1.61
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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