Kisvarda FC vs Paks Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kisvarda FC
Final Score
0 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Paks
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Várkert Sportpálya

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kisvarda FC opened at -0.25 against Paks in the NB I. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.18
Kisvarda FC +0.18

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.20 / 1.40
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Kisvarda FC -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.43
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.43 AH points more toward Paks than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Paks +0.25
@ 1.87
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.43
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.59
Price Advantage
+17.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
14:03
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
15:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.79 -0.25 2.52 / 1.77 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.59 / 1.87 -0.25 2.70 / 1.86 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.50 / 1.95 -0.25 2.60 / 1.85 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 2.48 / 1.79 -0.25 2.55 / 1.77 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 2.60 / 1.83 -0.25 2.55 / 1.87 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.90 7.10
-2.00 9.00 6.25
-1.75 7.55 4.44
-1.50 5.75 3.50
-1.25 5.34 3.14
-1.00 4.90 2.83
-0.75 3.50 2.30
-0.25 2.55 1.77
0 2.23 1.55
+0.25 1.85 1.43
+0.75 1.49 1.22
+1.00 1.33 1.11
+1.25 1.27 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.07
+1.75 1.14 1.03
+2.00 1.06 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 3.55
-1.25 5.50 3.30
-1.00 4.80 3.00
-0.75 3.55 2.38
-0.50 3.00 2.08
-0.25 2.60 1.85
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.95 1.48
+0.50 1.72 1.38
+0.75 1.55 1.27
+1.00 1.38 1.18
+1.25 1.32 1.15
+1.50 1.27 1.14

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.55 1.87
+0.25 1.91 1.50

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.60 4.45
-1.50 5.75 3.50
-1.25 5.35 3.14
-1.00 4.90 2.83
-0.75 3.50 2.30
-0.25 2.52 1.77
0 2.23 1.55
+0.25 1.85 1.41
+0.75 1.49 1.22
+1.00 1.33 1.11
+1.25 1.27 1.09
+1.50 1.22 1.07
+1.75 1.14 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.73 2.40
-0.50 3.03 2.09
-0.25 2.70 1.86
0 2.36 1.61
+0.25 2.00 1.48
+0.50 1.77 1.39
+0.75 1.59 1.28
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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