Lommel United vs KV Mechelen Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Lommel United
Final Score
0 – 0
(HT 0-0)
KV Mechelen
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Soeverein Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Lommel United opened at 0 against KV Mechelen in the Jupiler Pro League. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 7 valid books, with 71% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.24
Lommel United -0.24

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.52 / 1.25
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Lommel United 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.24
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.24 AH points more toward Lommel United than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Lommel United 0
@ 1.95
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.24
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.72
Price Advantage
+13.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 7 valid books · 71% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
17:06
Opening
0
17:47
Last Pre-Match
0
18:44
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.88 / 1.86 0 1.87 / 1.86 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.94 / 1.91 0 1.95 / 1.95 0 0
SBO SHARP BOOK +0.25 1.64 / 1.68 +0.25 1.64 / 1.68 — 0
Bet365 0 1.92 / 1.88 0 1.90 / 1.90 0 0
1xBet 0 1.92 / 1.90 0 1.92 / 1.90 0 0
Betano +0.25 1.67 / 1.67 +0.25 1.70 / 1.67 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.86 / 1.81 0 1.82 / 1.84 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 9.10
-2.00 8.60 8.50
-1.75 5.90 5.84
-1.50 4.65 4.60
-1.25 4.24 4.20
-1.00 3.86 3.82
-0.75 2.88 2.84
-0.25 2.22 2.10
0 1.92 1.90
+0.25 1.61 1.68
+0.75 1.33 1.32
+1.00 1.19 1.18
+1.25 1.15 1.15
+1.50 1.13 1.12
+1.75 1.07 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.40 6.40
-1.50 4.80 4.80
-1.25 4.40 4.40
-1.00 4.00 4.00
-0.75 3.00 3.00
-0.50 2.50 2.50
-0.25 2.20 2.20
0 1.90 1.90
+0.25 1.65 1.65
+0.50 1.50 1.50
+0.75 1.38 1.38
+1.00 1.23 1.23
+1.25 1.20 1.20
+1.50 1.18 1.18
+1.75 1.12 1.12

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.43 2.45
-0.25 2.13 2.15
0 1.82 1.84
+0.25 1.60 1.61
+0.50 1.47 1.47

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.10 3.05
-0.50 2.57 2.55
-0.25 2.25 2.22
+0.25 1.70 1.67
+0.50 1.55 1.53
+0.75 1.40 1.39

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.20 9.10
-2.00 8.60 8.50
-1.75 5.90 5.85
-1.50 4.65 4.60
-1.25 4.25 4.20
-1.00 3.86 3.82
-0.75 2.88 2.84
-0.25 2.12 2.10
0 1.87 1.86
+0.25 1.61 1.60
+0.75 1.33 1.32
+1.00 1.19 1.18
+1.25 1.15 1.15
+1.50 1.13 1.12
+1.75 1.07 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.31 4.26
-0.75 3.17 3.16
-0.50 2.62 2.62
-0.25 2.29 2.28
0 1.95 1.95
+0.25 1.69 1.69
+0.50 1.54 1.54
+0.75 1.39 1.39
+1.00 1.25 1.25

SBO Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.21 2.28
+0.25 1.64 1.68
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
More