Everton vs Chelsea Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Everton
Oct 17, 2026 - 11:30
1.52 1.31
Chelsea
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Everton opened at -0.25 against Chelsea in the Premier League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.19
Everton -0.19

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Everton -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.06
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.06 AH points more toward Chelsea than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Everton -0.25
@ 2.79
Best Available Price · 1xBet
Line Edge
0.06
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.07
Price Advantage
+34.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.65 / 1.85 -0.25 2.65 / 1.85 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.78 / 1.93 -0.25 2.78 / 1.93 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 1.85 -0.25 2.68 / 1.85 — 0
1xBet +0.25 1.89 / 1.52 +0.25 1.89 / 1.52 — 0
Betano -0.50 3.10 / 2.15 -0.50 3.10 / 2.15 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.62 / 1.80 -0.25 2.62 / 1.80 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.19
xG 1.52 / 1.31 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.78
Everton @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.07
Everton @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.78 vs 2.07
Market price is 34.3% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 11.50 8.30
-2.00 12.00 7.40
-1.75 8.95 4.97
-1.50 6.45 3.92
-1.25 6.03 3.46
-1.00 5.55 3.15
-0.75 3.72 2.44
-0.25 2.79 1.85
0 2.41 1.66
+0.25 1.89 1.52
+0.75 1.49 1.24
+1.00 1.31 1.11
+1.25 1.24 1.09
+1.50 1.19 1.07
+1.75 1.11 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.40 3.70
-1.25 5.90 3.45
-1.00 5.50 3.00
-0.75 3.70 2.38
-0.50 3.00 2.08
-0.25 2.68 1.85
0 2.35 1.58
+0.25 2.00 1.45
+0.50 1.72 1.38
+0.75 1.55 1.26
+1.00 1.38 1.15
+1.25 1.30 1.13
+1.50 1.26 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.98 2.05
-0.25 2.62 1.80
0 2.26 1.54
+0.25 1.87 1.41
+0.50 1.66 1.33

Betano Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.10 2.15
+0.50 1.75 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.70 5.00
-1.50 6.45 3.92
-1.25 6.00 3.48
-1.00 5.55 3.15
-0.75 3.72 2.45
-0.25 2.65 1.85
0 2.34 1.62
+0.25 1.89 1.44
+0.75 1.50 1.24
+1.00 1.31 1.11
+1.25 1.25 1.09
+1.50 1.19 1.07
+1.75 1.11 1.02

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.72 3.27
-0.75 3.99 2.58
-0.50 3.16 2.21
-0.25 2.78 1.93
0 2.38 1.64
+0.25 1.97 1.49
+0.50 1.74 1.39
+0.75 1.55 1.27
+1.00 1.37 1.20
Primary Bets
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