Kilmarnock vs Motherwell Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Kilmarnock
Oct 17, 2026 - 14:00
1.15 2.02
Motherwell
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Kilmarnock opened at -0.25 against Motherwell in the Premiership. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.83
Kilmarnock +0.83

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Kilmarnock -0.25
Model–Market Gap
1.08
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 1.08 AH points more toward Motherwell than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Motherwell +0.25
@ 1.76
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
1.08
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.31
Price Advantage
+34.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.80 / 1.67 -0.25 2.80 / 1.67 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.02 / 1.76 -0.25 3.02 / 1.76 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 -0.25 2.85 / 1.75 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.86 / 1.67 -0.25 2.86 / 1.67 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.83
xG 1.15 / 2.02 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.02
Kilmarnock @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
4.21
Kilmarnock @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.02 vs 4.21
Market price is 28.3% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.50 5.55
-1.75 8.35 4.04
-1.50 6.50 3.20
-1.25 6.10 2.92
-1.00 5.70 2.59
-0.75 3.98 2.12
-0.25 2.86 1.67
0 2.54 1.47
+0.25 2.01 1.38
+0.75 1.58 1.17
+1.00 1.39 1.08
+1.25 1.31 1.06
+1.50 1.26 1.05

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 3.45
-1.25 6.25 3.10
-1.00 5.90 2.75
-0.75 4.00 2.25
-0.50 3.30 2.02
-0.25 2.85 1.75
0 2.42 1.52
+0.25 2.05 1.40
+0.50 1.82 1.32
+0.75 1.62 1.23
+1.00 1.42 1.13
+1.25 1.35 1.12
+1.50 1.30 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.40 4.05
-1.50 6.50 3.20
-1.25 6.10 2.92
-1.00 5.70 2.59
-0.75 3.98 2.12
-0.25 2.80 1.67
0 2.54 1.47
+0.25 2.01 1.35
+0.75 1.58 1.17
+1.00 1.39 1.08
+1.25 1.31 1.06
+1.50 1.26 1.05

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.86 2.33
-0.50 3.44 2.03
-0.25 3.02 1.76
0 2.61 1.51
+0.25 2.10 1.39
+0.50 1.83 1.32
+0.75 1.63 1.25
Primary Bets
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