Dundee vs Motherwell Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Dundee
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 2-1)
Motherwell
Kick-off 14:00 Stadium Dens Park

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Dundee opened at -0.25 against Motherwell in the Premiership. The current market consensus is +0.25. The handicap moved 0.50 points toward Motherwell from the opening line. The current consensus is +0.25 across 3 of 6 valid books, with 50% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also +0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.70
Dundee +0.70

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.02 / 1.76
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Dundee +0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.45
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.45 AH points more toward Motherwell than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
+0.25
3 / 6 valid books · 50% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
16:36
Opening
-0.25
13:47
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
+0.25
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.51 / 1.86 -0.25 2.48 / 1.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP +0.25 1.91 / 1.50 +0.25 1.88 / 1.52 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.92 -0.25 2.50 / 2.02 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.60 / 1.85 -0.25 2.54 / 1.90 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.70 / 1.93 -0.25 2.65 / 1.98 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.53 / 1.86 -0.25 2.40 / 1.93 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 10.00 8.00
-1.75 7.95 5.35
-1.50 5.95 4.15
-1.25 5.50 3.76
-1.00 5.05 3.34
-0.75 3.52 2.56
-0.25 2.54 1.90
0 2.14 1.65
+0.25 1.75 1.47
+0.75 1.40 1.22
+1.00 1.24 1.10
+1.25 1.19 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.07
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Bet365 Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.90 4.25
-1.25 5.50 3.80
-1.00 5.00 3.45
-0.75 3.55 2.68
-0.50 2.85 2.30
-0.25 2.50 2.02
0 2.15 1.68
+0.25 1.82 1.50
+0.50 1.60 1.40
+0.75 1.45 1.27
+1.00 1.30 1.17
+1.25 1.25 1.15
+1.50 1.21 1.13

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.40 1.93
0 2.06 1.65
+0.25 1.75 1.48

Betano Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.05 2.30
-0.25 2.65 1.98
+0.25 1.87 1.50
+0.50 1.65 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.10 5.30
-1.50 6.05 4.10
-1.25 5.55 3.72
-1.00 5.10 3.28
-0.75 3.52 2.53
-0.25 2.48 1.88
0 2.17 1.63
+0.25 1.77 1.44
+0.75 1.41 1.22
+1.00 1.25 1.10
+1.25 1.20 1.08
+1.50 1.16 1.06
+1.75 1.09 1.02

Pinnacle Main +0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.84 2.77
-0.50 3.07 2.33
-0.25 2.68 2.03
0 2.27 1.70
+0.25 1.88 1.52
+0.50 1.67 1.41
+0.75 1.49 1.29
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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