Vitesse vs NAC Breda Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Vitesse
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:30
1.80 1.98
NAC Breda
Opening
0
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
0
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 6 books · 67% agreement · Moderate
Line Move
-0.25
Toward Home · Opening → Current

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Vitesse opened at 0 against NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Vitesse from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 6 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.17
Vitesse +0.17

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Vitesse -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.42
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 6 books · Moderate

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.42 AH points more toward NAC Breda than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
NAC Breda +0.25
@ 2.00
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.42
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.67
Price Advantage
+19.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 6 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.30 / 1.88 -0.25 2.30 / 1.88 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.06 / 1.75 0 2.08 / 1.74 — 0
Bet365 0 2.10 / 1.70 0 2.10 / 1.70 — 0
1xBet 0 2.02 / 1.72 -0.25 2.35 / 1.88 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.32 / 2.00 -0.25 2.37 / 1.98 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.36 / 1.92 -0.25 2.36 / 1.92 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.17
xG 1.80 / 1.98 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.30
Vitesse @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.50
Vitesse @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.30 vs 2.50
Market price is 8.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.30 7.80
-2.00 8.30 7.00
-1.75 6.59 4.89
-1.50 5.10 3.86
-1.25 4.74 3.50
-1.00 4.30 3.14
-0.75 3.14 2.46
-0.25 2.35 1.88
0 2.07 1.68
+0.25 1.76 1.53
+0.75 1.43 1.27
+1.00 1.27 1.14
+1.25 1.22 1.12
+1.50 1.18 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05
+2.00 1.04 1.03
+2.50 1.02 1.02

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 5.25
-1.50 5.50 4.00
-1.25 4.80 3.55
-1.00 4.40 3.30
-0.75 3.45 2.60
-0.50 2.75 2.25
-0.25 2.42 2.00
0 2.10 1.70
+0.25 1.80 1.52
+0.50 1.62 1.42
+0.75 1.48 1.30
+1.00 1.32 1.20
+1.25 1.27 1.18
+1.50 1.23 1.15
+1.75 1.16 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.36 1.92
0 2.05 1.66
+0.25 1.76 1.50

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.60 2.22
-0.25 2.37 1.98
+0.25 1.80 1.57
+0.50 1.65 1.47

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.60 4.90
-1.50 5.10 3.86
-1.25 4.75 3.50
-1.00 4.30 3.14
-0.75 3.14 2.46
-0.25 2.30 1.88
0 2.07 1.68
+0.25 1.76 1.50
+0.75 1.43 1.27
+1.00 1.27 1.14
+1.25 1.22 1.12
+1.50 1.18 1.10
+1.75 1.11 1.05

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.23 2.63
-0.50 2.67 2.25
-0.25 2.38 2.00
0 2.08 1.74
+0.25 1.81 1.56
+0.50 1.63 1.45
+0.75 1.47 1.33
Primary Bets
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