Waalwijk vs Dordrecht Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Waalwijk
Final Score
2 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Dordrecht
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Mandemakers Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Waalwijk opened at -0.50 against Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie. The current market consensus is -0.25. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Dordrecht from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 1 of 1 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.38
Waalwijk +0.38

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.45 / 1.86
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Waalwijk -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.50 · 2 / 7 books · Weak
Model–Market Gap
0.63
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.63 AH points more toward Dordrecht than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

The current market does not provide sufficient validation for a tradable signal.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
1 / 1 valid books · 100% agreement · Insufficient

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.50 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:15
Opening
-0.50
06:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.50
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.75 1.94 / 4.85 -0.25 1.55 / 3.20 — +0.50
Betfair DEEP +1.50 1.06 / 1.30 +1.50 1.06 / 1.30 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 1.83 / 3.77 -0.50 1.83 / 3.77 — 0
Bet365 -0.50 1.80 / 3.90 -0.50 1.80 / 3.90 — 0
1xBet -0.75 1.94 / 4.84 -0.75 1.94 / 4.84 — 0
Unibet +0.50 1.25 / 1.90 +0.50 1.25 / 1.90 — 0
Superbet +0.50 1.25 / 1.90 +0.50 1.25 / 1.90 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.94 8.50
-1.25 2.71 7.80
-1.00 2.38 7.50
-0.75 1.94 4.84
-0.25 1.52 3.28
0 1.32 2.88
+0.25 1.25 2.24
+0.75 1.11 1.72
+1.00 1.03 1.53
+1.25 1.02 1.42

Bet365 Main —

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.02 5.00
-0.50 1.80 3.90
-0.25 1.58 3.45
0 1.38 3.00
+0.25 1.30 2.35
+0.50 1.24 2.00
+0.75 1.17 1.78

Betfair Main —

AH Home Away
-2.50 6.00 12.00
-1.50 3.20 7.50
+1.50 1.06 1.30
+2.50 1.02 1.10

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.99 8.30
-1.25 2.69 7.80
-1.00 2.43 7.30
-0.75 1.98 4.75
-0.25 1.55 3.20
0 1.33 2.81
+0.25 1.26 2.19
+0.75 1.12 1.69
+1.00 1.03 1.51
+1.25 1.02 1.38

Pinnacle Main —

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.83 3.77
-0.25 1.60 3.35
0 1.39 2.94
+0.25 1.31 2.31
+0.50 1.26 1.98

Superbet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.05 7.10
-0.50 1.80 3.55
+0.50 1.25 1.90
+1.50 1.06 1.33

Unibet Main —

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.95 6.50
-0.50 1.77 3.40
+0.50 1.25 1.90
+1.50 1.07 1.33
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
Primary Bets
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