Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eerste Divisie / Waalwijk vs Dordrecht

Prediction Audit: Waalwijk vs Dordrecht Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Waalwijk Waalwijk
Aug 14, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.45
2 1.86
xG Accuracy: 83%
Dordrecht Dordrecht

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Dordrecht at 41.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dordrecht Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 2-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Waalwijk higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Waalwijk -18.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Waalwijk 32.9% 51.0% -18.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.6% 24.6% +1.0 pp Aligned
Dordrecht 41.5% 24.4% +17.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Waalwijk's win probability at 51.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 18.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Waalwijk than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.31) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Dordrecht; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dordrecht by 18.1 percentage points (59.6% vs model 41.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 19:25 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Waalwijk 32.9% · Draw 25.6% · Dordrecht 41.5%
    • xG · Waalwijk 1.45 — Dordrecht 1.86
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Waalwijk 1.86 · Draw 3.86 · Dordrecht 3.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Waalwijk 51.0% · Draw 24.6% · Dordrecht 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Waalwijk 1.86 · Draw 3.86 · Dordrecht 3.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Waalwijk 51.0% · Draw 24.6% · Dordrecht 24.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 02:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3235080

Closing Odds 1.86
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Waalwijk 2–2 Dordrecht
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eerste Divisie
  • Fixture: Waalwijk vs Dordrecht
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 25.6% · Away 41.5%
  • xG (showing): Waalwijk 1.45 — Dordrecht 1.86 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Dordrecht
  • Model: 41.5% · Implied: 24.4% · Probability edge: +17.1 pts · Est. EV: +9.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.9% · No 34.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Eerste Divisie Eerste Divisie — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Heracles 8 7 0 1 21
2 Almere City FC 8 5 1 2 16
3 MVV 8 5 1 2 16
4 VVV Venlo 8 5 0 3 15
5 Roda 8 4 3 1 15
6 Emmen 8 5 0 3 15
7 Waalwijk 8 3 4 1 13
8 Vitesse 8 4 1 3 13
9 NAC Breda 8 4 1 3 13
10 Jong AZ 9 4 1 4 13
11 FC Volendam 8 4 0 4 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 12
13 FC Eindhoven 8 3 1 4 10
14 Helmond Sport 8 2 2 4 8
15 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 8
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 2 1 5 7
18 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 7
19 FC OSS 8 2 0 6 6
20 De Graafschap 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Heracles 8 26 10 +16 21
2 Jong AZ 9 22 17 +5 13
3 VVV Venlo 8 21 14 +7 15
4 FC Volendam 8 20 16 +4 12
5 Almere City FC 8 18 7 +11 16
6 Waalwijk 8 18 11 +7 13
7 Emmen 8 18 17 +1 15
8 NAC Breda 8 17 17 0 13
9 Jong Utrecht 9 15 21 -6 7
10 Jong PSV 9 14 16 -2 12
11 Vitesse 8 13 11 +2 13
12 Helmond Sport 8 13 14 -1 8
13 FC Eindhoven 8 13 17 -4 10
14 Jong Ajax 9 13 22 -9 8
15 MVV 8 12 15 -3 16
16 Den Bosch 7 12 16 -4 7
17 Dordrecht 8 12 23 -11 7
18 Roda 8 9 5 +4 15
19 FC OSS 8 8 13 -5 6
20 De Graafschap 7 8 20 -12 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Volendam 8 9.6 5.1 +4.5 12
2 Heracles 8 10.1 6.0 +4.1 21
3 Emmen 8 9.2 6.2 +3.0 15
4 NAC Breda 8 9.8 6.9 +2.9 13
5 MVV 8 6.7 3.8 +2.9 16
6 Jong PSV 9 8.5 5.7 +2.8 12
7 Den Bosch 7 9.6 7.0 +2.6 7
8 Vitesse 8 8.0 6.8 +1.2 13
9 Jong AZ 9 6.9 5.7 +1.2 13
10 Almere City FC 8 7.2 6.1 +1.1 16
11 Roda 8 8.1 7.2 +0.9 15
12 Waalwijk 8 4.8 4.6 +0.2 13
13 FC OSS 8 5.3 7.3 -2.0 6
14 De Graafschap 7 5.4 7.6 -2.2 4
15 Jong Ajax 9 8.4 10.8 -2.4 8
16 VVV Venlo 8 5.7 8.9 -3.2 15
17 Helmond Sport 8 2.6 6.2 -3.6 8
18 Jong Utrecht 9 5.4 9.6 -4.2 7
19 FC Eindhoven 8 3.9 8.2 -4.3 10
20 Dordrecht 8 5.0 10.7 -5.7 7
Eerste Divisie Netherlands. Eerste Divisie Predictions