Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Atlas
Oct 11, 2026 - 01:00
0.76 1.56
Guadalajara Chivas
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Atlas opened at -0.25 against Guadalajara Chivas in the Liga MX. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.74
Atlas +0.74

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Atlas -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.99
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.99 AH points more toward Guadalajara Chivas than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Guadalajara Chivas +0.25
@ 1.93
Best Available Price · Betano
Line Edge
0.99
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.26
Price Advantage
+53.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.55 / 1.82 -0.25 2.55 / 1.82 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.82 / 1.92 -0.25 2.84 / 1.90 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.60 / 1.90 -0.25 2.68 / 1.90 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.61 / 1.82 -0.25 2.61 / 1.82 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.77 / 1.93 -0.25 2.77 / 1.93 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 2.58 / 1.83 -0.25 2.59 / 1.82 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.74
xG 0.76 / 1.56 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.84
Atlas @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
4.81
Atlas @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.84 vs 4.81
Market price is 41.0% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.65 4.80
-1.50 5.90 3.80
-1.25 5.50 3.42
-1.00 5.10 3.08
-0.75 3.58 2.42
-0.25 2.61 1.82
0 2.23 1.59
+0.25 1.82 1.44
+0.75 1.44 1.21
+1.00 1.28 1.10
+1.25 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.19 1.07
+1.75 1.11 1.02

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.25 4.00
-1.25 5.90 3.55
-1.00 5.50 3.30
-0.75 3.70 2.50
-0.50 3.00 2.15
-0.25 2.68 1.90
0 2.30 1.60
+0.25 1.90 1.45
+0.50 1.68 1.38
+0.75 1.50 1.26
+1.00 1.32 1.15
+1.25 1.27 1.13
+1.50 1.23 1.12

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.95 2.08
-0.25 2.59 1.82
0 2.22 1.56
+0.25 1.84 1.42
+0.50 1.64 1.33

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 3.15 2.22
-0.25 2.77 1.93
+0.25 1.93 1.47
+0.50 1.70 1.39

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 7.70 4.80
-1.50 5.90 3.80
-1.25 5.50 3.42
-1.00 5.10 3.08
-0.75 3.58 2.42
-0.25 2.55 1.82
0 2.23 1.59
+0.25 1.82 1.41
+0.75 1.44 1.21
+1.00 1.28 1.10
+1.25 1.23 1.08
+1.50 1.19 1.07
+1.75 1.12 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 4.17 2.56
-0.50 3.26 2.19
-0.25 2.84 1.90
0 2.41 1.59
+0.25 1.95 1.44
+0.50 1.70 1.35
+0.75 1.53 1.24
Primary Bets
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