HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk Split Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

HNK Rijeka
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 2-0)
HNK Hajduk Split
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Stadion HNK Rijeka

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

HNK Rijeka opened at -0.25 against HNK Hajduk Split in the HNL. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.14 / 1.08
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
HNK Rijeka -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward HNK Hajduk Split than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
HNK Hajduk Split +0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.76
Price Advantage
+80.7%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:33
Opening
-0.25
13:02
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.71 / 2.90 -0.25 1.59 / 3.18 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.79 / 3.07 -0.25 1.78 / 3.15 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.98 / 2.60 -0.25 1.78 / 2.85 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 2.92 -0.25 1.66 / 3.12 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.85 / 2.77 -0.25 1.67 / 2.95 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.78 / 2.76 -0.25 1.59 / 2.86 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.34 7.90
-1.25 3.06 7.50
-1.00 2.66 7.00
-0.75 2.17 4.58
-0.25 1.66 3.12
0 1.41 2.71
+0.25 1.30 2.09
+0.75 1.14 1.59
+1.00 1.04 1.37
+1.25 1.03 1.30
+1.50 1.02 1.24

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.90 7.00
-1.25 3.45 6.80
-1.00 3.10 6.40
-0.75 2.38 4.15
-0.50 2.08 3.30
-0.25 1.78 2.85
+0.25 1.40 2.02
+0.50 1.32 1.72
+0.75 1.22 1.55
+1.00 1.12 1.35
+1.25 1.10 1.30
+1.50 1.10 1.24

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.59 2.86
0 1.36 2.82
+0.25 1.35 2.17

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.67 2.95
+0.25 1.39 2.15

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.20 8.30
-1.25 2.88 7.90
-1.00 2.56 7.40
-0.75 2.07 4.75
-0.25 1.59 3.18
0 1.38 2.83
+0.25 1.27 2.12
+0.75 1.12 1.61
+1.00 1.03 1.40
+1.25 1.02 1.32

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.44 4.50
-0.50 2.08 3.63
-0.25 1.78 3.15
0 1.49 2.67
+0.25 1.36 2.08
+0.50 1.29 1.79
+0.75 1.20 1.58
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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