Namibia vs Congo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Namibia
Sep 24, 2026 - 13:00
1.31 1.29
Congo
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Namibia opened at -0.25 against Congo in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Namibia -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.23
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.23 AH points more toward Congo than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Congo +0.25
@ 2.71
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.23
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.75
Price Advantage
+54.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.71 / 2.88 -0.25 1.90 / 2.52 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.79 / 2.05 -0.25 2.00 / 2.71 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.78 / 3.10 -0.25 1.98 / 2.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.89 / 2.90 -0.25 1.94 / 2.52 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.07 / 2.42 -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.70 / 1.99 -0.25 1.92 / 2.65 — -0.25
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.02
xG 1.31 / 1.29 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
2.00
Namibia @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.33
Namibia @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
2.00 vs 2.33
Market price is 14.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.15 9.00
-1.50 4.70 6.80
-1.25 4.24 6.34
-1.00 3.74 5.80
-0.75 2.66 3.76
-0.25 1.94 2.52
0 1.62 2.18
+0.25 1.42 1.78
+0.75 1.19 1.37
+1.00 1.07 1.19
+1.25 1.05 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.80 6.25
-1.25 4.40 6.80
-1.00 3.80 6.00
-0.75 2.75 3.90
-0.50 2.30 3.10
-0.25 1.98 2.68
0 1.65 2.20
+0.25 1.45 1.82
+0.50 1.35 1.60
+0.75 1.24 1.42
+1.00 1.12 1.25
+1.25 1.10 1.20
+1.50 1.12 1.18

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.82
-0.25 1.92 2.65
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.40 1.76
+0.50 1.36 1.55

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.25 2.80
-0.25 1.93 2.65
+0.25 1.44 1.80
+0.50 1.40 1.60

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.15 9.00
-1.50 4.70 6.80
-1.25 4.25 6.35
-1.00 3.74 5.80
-0.75 2.66 3.76
-0.25 1.90 2.52
0 1.62 2.18
+0.25 1.42 1.74
+0.75 1.19 1.37
+1.00 1.07 1.19
+1.25 1.06 1.15
+1.50 1.04 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.79 3.66
-0.50 2.33 3.17
-0.25 2.00 2.71
0 1.62 2.27
+0.25 1.43 1.83
+0.50 1.33 1.60
+0.75 1.26 1.41
Primary Bets
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