AI correctly predicted the Agigea win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Agigea Agigea ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agigea | 36.1% | 41.5% | -5.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.1% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Unirea Braniştea | 34.2% | 34.3% | -0.1 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Agigea win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Agigea more conservatively (30.6% vs model 36.1%, 5.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Agigea win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Agigea 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Unirea Braniştea 34.2%
- xG · Agigea 1.32 — Unirea Braniştea 1.28
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Agigea 2.15 · Draw 3.70 · Unirea Braniştea 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Agigea 41.5% · Draw 24.1% · Unirea Braniştea 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Agigea 2.15 · Draw 3.70 · Unirea Braniştea 2.60
- Implied 1X2 · Agigea 41.5% · Draw 24.1% · Unirea Braniştea 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Agigea win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga III - Serie 4 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Agigea | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 2 | Agricola Borcea | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Înainte Modelu | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Sporting Lieşti | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Progresul Fundulea | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Axiopolis | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Unirea Braniştea | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Dunarea Calarasi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Gloria Băneasa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Portul Constanta | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | FC Oţelul II | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Lieşti | 5 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 9 |
| 2 | Înainte Modelu | 5 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Progresul Fundulea | 5 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Agigea | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Agricola Borcea | 5 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 12 |
| 6 | Recolta Gheorghe Doja | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Unirea Braniştea | 5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 |
| 8 | Portul Constanta | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | Axiopolis | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Dunarea Calarasi | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Gloria Băneasa | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Oţelul II | 5 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
