Cyprus vs Armenia Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Cyprus
Oct 02, 2026 - 16:00
1.85 1.94
Armenia
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
6 / 6 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Cyprus opened at -0.25 against Armenia in the UEFA Nations League. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Cyprus -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.33
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.33 AH points more toward Armenia than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Armenia +0.25
@ 2.77
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.33
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.73
Price Advantage
+60.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.73 / 2.13 -0.25 1.93 / 2.65 — -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.04 / 2.64 -0.25 1.95 / 2.77 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.00 / 2.50 -0.25 1.95 / 2.50 — 0
1xBet 0 1.76 / 2.16 -0.25 2.00 / 2.65 — -0.25
Betano -0.25 1.98 / 2.50 -0.25 1.98 / 2.55 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.94 / 2.50 -0.25 1.88 / 2.59 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
+0.08
xG 1.85 / 1.94 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.95
Cyprus @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.38
Cyprus @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.95 vs 2.38
Market price is 18.1% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.98 9.60
-1.50 4.55 7.10
-1.25 4.12 6.56
-1.00 3.64 6.05
-0.75 2.66 3.90
-0.25 2.00 2.65
0 1.68 2.30
+0.25 1.44 1.88
+0.75 1.21 1.43
+1.00 1.09 1.24
+1.25 1.06 1.19
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.40 6.00
-1.25 4.00 5.75
-1.00 3.55 5.25
-0.75 2.68 3.55
-0.50 2.30 2.85
-0.25 1.95 2.50
0 1.68 2.15
+0.25 1.50 1.85
+0.50 1.40 1.60
+0.75 1.27 1.45
+1.00 1.16 1.27
+1.25 1.14 1.23
+1.50 1.12 1.20

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.88 2.59
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.42 1.79

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.98 2.55
+0.25 1.50 1.80

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.95 9.60
-1.50 4.55 7.10
-1.25 4.10 6.60
-1.00 3.64 6.05
-0.75 2.66 3.92
-0.25 1.93 2.65
0 1.65 2.27
+0.25 1.44 1.82
+0.75 1.22 1.43
+1.00 1.09 1.24
+1.25 1.07 1.19
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.72 4.08
-0.50 2.26 3.20
-0.25 1.95 2.77
0 1.61 2.31
+0.25 1.45 1.88
+0.50 1.34 1.64
+0.75 1.23 1.46
Primary Bets
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