Fylkir vs Afturelding Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Fylkir
Final Score
3 – 3
(HT 1-1)
Afturelding
Kick-off 19:15

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Fylkir opened at 0 against Afturelding in the 1. Deild. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 6 of 7 valid books, with 86% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.27 / 1.33
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Fylkir 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 6 / 7 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Afturelding than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
WAIT

No positive price advantage at the valid market line.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
6 / 7 valid books · 86% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
00:08
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
0
19:14
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
SBO SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 3 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.75 / 1.93 0 1.90 / 1.77 0 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.71 / 1.98 0 1.90 / 1.78 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 2.06 0 2.01 / 1.85 0 0
SBO SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.03 / 2.13 -0.25 2.03 / 2.13 -0.25 0
Bet365 0 1.75 / 2.05 0 1.95 / 1.85 0 0
1xBet 0 1.71 / 1.98 0 1.90 / 1.78 0 0
BetVictor 0 1.70 / 1.99 0 1.89 / 1.78 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
0 1.90 1.77

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 8.40 8.50
-2.00 8.70 7.70
-1.75 5.90 5.30
-1.50 4.60 4.20
-1.25 4.25 3.83
-1.00 3.84 3.42
-0.75 2.89 2.68
-0.25 2.17 2.03
0 1.90 1.78
+0.25 1.68 1.58
+0.75 1.38 1.33
+1.00 1.23 1.18
+1.25 1.19 1.15
+1.50 1.15 1.13
+1.75 1.09 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.75 5.50
-1.50 4.40 4.15
-1.25 4.00 3.80
-1.00 3.70 3.55
-0.75 2.85 2.75
-0.50 2.42 2.38
-0.25 2.20 2.10
0 1.95 1.85
+0.25 1.70 1.65
+0.50 1.55 1.52
+0.75 1.42 1.40
+1.00 1.27 1.26
+1.25 1.25 1.23
+1.50 1.22 1.20
+1.75 1.15 1.14

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.17 2.05
0 1.89 1.78
+0.25 1.66 1.59

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.30 8.50
-2.00 8.70 7.70
-1.75 5.90 5.30
-1.50 4.60 4.20
-1.25 4.25 3.82
-1.00 3.84 3.42
-0.75 2.88 2.66
-0.25 2.15 2.00
0 1.90 1.78
+0.25 1.65 1.56
+0.75 1.37 1.32
+1.00 1.23 1.18
+1.25 1.18 1.15
+1.50 1.15 1.13
+1.75 1.09 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.01 2.73
-0.50 2.54 2.34
-0.25 2.28 2.10
0 2.01 1.85
+0.25 1.75 1.64
+0.50 1.59 1.51
+0.75 1.45 1.38

SBO Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 2.03 2.13
+0.25 1.68 1.77
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

No primary bet was issued pre-match. Decision was WAIT. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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