Telavi vs Shturmi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Telavi
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-0)
Shturmi
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium Kavkasioni Arena

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Telavi opened at -0.25 against Shturmi in the Erovnuli Liga 2. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 2 of 3 valid books, with 67% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -0.50.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Telavi -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 2 / 3 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Shturmi than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Shturmi +0.25
@ 3.08
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+74.0%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
2 / 3 valid books · 67% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.50
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:11
Opening
-0.25
12:14
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
14:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.50
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.77 / 2.70 -0.25 1.66 / 3.08 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.79 / 2.78 -0.50 1.98 / 3.19 -0.50 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.52 / 2.37 -0.25 1.68 / 3.08 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.74 8.40
-1.00 2.88 7.40
-0.75 2.24 4.69
-0.25 1.68 3.08
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.28 2.01
+0.75 1.12 1.52
+1.00 1.03 1.32

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.74 8.40
-1.00 2.88 7.40
-0.75 2.24 4.70
-0.25 1.66 3.08
0 1.40 2.62
+0.25 1.28 1.99
+0.75 1.12 1.52
+1.00 1.03 1.32

Pinnacle Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.98 3.19
-0.25 1.69 3.07
0 1.40 2.60
+0.25 1.30 2.02
+0.50 1.28 1.75
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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