SJK Akatemia vs KäPa Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

SJK Akatemia
Final Score
2 – 3
(HT 1-1)
KäPa
Kick-off 15:00 Stadium OmaSp Stadion

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

SJK Akatemia opened at 0 against KäPa in the Ykkösliiga. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.32 / 1.28
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
SJK Akatemia 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 4 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward SJK Akatemia than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
SJK Akatemia 0
@ 2.05
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.95
Price Advantage
+5.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:28
Opening
0
12:24
Last Pre-Match
0
15:00
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.90 / 1.77 0 1.94 / 1.73 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.98 / 1.83 0 2.04 / 1.83 0 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 2.05 / 1.75 0 0
1xBet 0 1.90 / 1.77 0 1.94 / 1.73 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.50 8.50
-2.00 9.20 7.70
-1.75 6.19 5.30
-1.50 4.80 4.15
-1.25 4.39 3.78
-1.00 4.00 3.34
-0.75 2.97 2.59
-0.25 2.22 1.96
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.68 1.56
+0.75 1.39 1.30
+1.00 1.24 1.17
+1.25 1.19 1.14
+1.50 1.16 1.11
+1.75 1.09 1.06

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.80 5.50
-1.50 5.25 4.15
-1.25 4.65 3.80
-1.00 4.25 3.45
-0.75 3.30 2.68
-0.50 2.68 2.30
-0.25 2.38 2.02
0 2.05 1.75
+0.25 1.78 1.55
+0.50 1.60 1.45
+0.75 1.45 1.32
+1.00 1.30 1.21
+1.25 1.25 1.18
+1.50 1.22 1.16
+1.75 1.15 1.10

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-2.50 9.50 8.50
-2.00 9.20 7.70
-1.75 6.20 5.30
-1.50 4.80 4.15
-1.25 4.40 3.78
-1.00 4.00 3.34
-0.75 2.97 2.59
-0.25 2.19 1.96
0 1.94 1.73
+0.25 1.68 1.54
+0.75 1.39 1.30
+1.00 1.24 1.17
+1.25 1.19 1.14
+1.50 1.16 1.11
+1.75 1.09 1.06

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.73 4.15
-1.00 4.20 3.76
-0.75 3.17 2.83
-0.50 2.64 2.38
-0.25 2.34 2.10
0 2.04 1.83
+0.25 1.76 1.62
+0.50 1.60 1.50
+0.75 1.43 1.36
+1.00 1.28 1.23
+1.25 1.24 1.27
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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