Real Pilar vs Arsenal Sarandi Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Real Pilar
Final Score
2 – 1
(HT 1-0)
Arsenal Sarandi
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Real Pilar opened at -0.25 against Arsenal Sarandi in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is 0. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Arsenal Sarandi from the opening line. The current consensus is 0 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.25
Real Pilar -0.25

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.44 / 1.16
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Real Pilar 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Real Pilar than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Real Pilar 0
@ 2.08
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+22.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
16:18
Last Pre-Match
0
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.42 / 1.98 0 2.00 / 1.68 — +0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.06 / 1.72 0 2.07 / 1.75 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 2.68 / 2.00 0 2.08 / 1.72 — +0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.44 / 1.98 0 2.00 / 1.68 — +0.25
BetVictor -0.25 2.23 / 1.78 -0.25 2.13 / 1.86 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.60 7.10
-1.50 6.75 5.35
-1.25 6.30 4.89
-1.00 5.80 4.40
-0.75 3.72 2.97
-0.25 2.45 2.03
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.63 1.45
+0.75 1.30 1.20
+1.00 1.14 1.07
+1.25 1.11 1.06
+1.50 1.09 1.04

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 7.00 5.75
-1.25 6.60 5.25
-1.00 6.00 4.40
-0.75 3.80 3.10
-0.50 3.00 2.42
-0.25 2.50 2.08
0 2.08 1.72
+0.25 1.72 1.50
+0.50 1.52 1.38
+0.75 1.35 1.25
+1.00 1.20 1.12
+1.25 1.16 1.11
+1.50 1.14 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.96 2.58
-0.50 2.42 2.13
-0.25 2.13 1.86
0 1.79 1.56
+0.25 1.51 1.37
+0.50 1.37 1.27
+0.75 1.23 1.16

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 7.10
-1.50 6.75 5.35
-1.25 6.30 4.90
-1.00 5.80 4.40
-0.75 3.72 2.97
-0.25 2.43 2.03
0 2.00 1.68
+0.25 1.63 1.44
+0.75 1.30 1.20
+1.00 1.14 1.07
+1.25 1.11 1.06
+1.50 1.09 1.04

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 3.83 3.18
-0.50 2.98 2.55
-0.25 2.54 2.16
0 2.07 1.75
+0.25 1.66 1.49
+0.50 1.47 1.35
+0.75 1.32 1.23
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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