Liniers vs Argentino de Merlo Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Liniers
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 0-0)
Argentino de Merlo
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Juan Antonio Arias Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Liniers opened at -0.25 against Argentino de Merlo in the Primera B Metropolitana. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 5 valid books, with 80% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Liniers -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Argentino de Merlo than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Argentino de Merlo +0.25
@ 3.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+79.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 5 valid books · 80% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:30
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
17:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.73 / 2.97 -0.25 1.79 / 2.92 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.83 / 3.01 -0.25 1.85 / 3.05 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.80 / 3.10 -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.75 / 2.97 -0.25 1.85 / 2.98 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.50 1.87 / 2.83 -0.50 1.89 / 2.79 -0.50 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.64 7.90
-1.25 4.09 10.10
-1.00 3.55 8.34
-0.75 2.58 4.70
-0.25 1.85 2.98
0 1.52 2.54
+0.25 1.36 1.95
+0.75 1.12 1.46
+1.00 1.07 1.30
+1.50 1.04 1.20

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.55 7.00
-0.75 2.60 4.50
-0.50 2.15 3.45
-0.25 1.85 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 1.95
+0.50 1.30 1.68
+0.75 1.19 1.48
+1.00 1.10 1.27

BetVictor Main -0.50

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.89 2.79
-0.25 1.64 2.48
0 1.37 2.12
+0.25 1.26 1.69
+0.50 1.19 1.49

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.75 8.90
-1.25 4.20 8.90
-1.00 3.58 8.20
-0.75 2.56 4.70
-0.25 1.79 2.92
0 1.47 2.41
+0.25 1.31 1.83
+0.75 1.12 1.40
+1.00 1.02 1.21

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.17 3.57
-0.25 1.85 3.05
0 1.49 2.54
+0.25 1.34 1.93
+0.50 1.26 1.65
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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