Deportivo Maipu vs Temperley Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Deportivo Maipu
Final Score
1 – 0
(HT 0-0)
Temperley
Kick-off 19:30 Stadium Stadion Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Deportivo Maipu opened at -0.25 against Temperley in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Deportivo Maipu -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Temperley than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Temperley +0.25
@ 3.18
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+82.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
20:03
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:29
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.74 / 2.92 -0.25 1.66 / 3.14 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.81 / 3.18 -0.25 1.81 / 3.18 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.88 / 3.00 -0.25 1.88 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.76 / 2.92 -0.25 1.68 / 3.14 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.80 / 3.00 -0.25 1.72 / 3.05 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.95 8.60
-1.25 3.50 10.20
-1.00 3.04 8.40
-0.75 2.28 4.95
-0.25 1.68 3.14
0 1.39 2.67
+0.25 1.27 2.01
+0.75 1.11 1.50
+1.50 1.03 1.17

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.68 4.65
-0.50 2.20 3.55
-0.25 1.88 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 1.92
+0.50 1.27 1.65
+0.75 1.18 1.45

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.72 3.05
+0.25 1.35 2.05

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.25 3.50 8.90
-1.00 3.04 8.40
-0.75 2.28 4.95
-0.25 1.66 3.14
0 1.39 2.67
+0.25 1.27 1.99
+0.75 1.11 1.50

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.56 4.94
-0.50 2.13 3.69
-0.25 1.81 3.18
0 1.48 2.63
+0.25 1.34 2.00
+0.50 1.26 1.70
+0.75 1.17 1.50
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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