Nueva Chicago vs Patronato Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Nueva Chicago
Final Score
1 – 1
(HT 0-1)
Patronato
Kick-off 22:00 Stadium Estadio Nueva Chicago

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Nueva Chicago opened at -0.25 against Patronato in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
0
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.30 / 1.30
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Nueva Chicago -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.25
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.25 AH points more toward Patronato than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Patronato +0.25
@ 2.92
Best Available Price · Marathonbet
Line Edge
0.25
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.74
Price Advantage
+67.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:20
Opening
-0.25
16:02
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
0
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.98 / 2.49 -0.25 1.76 / 2.92 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.10 / 2.69 0 1.50 / 2.66 — +0.25
Bet365 0 1.72 / 2.08 -0.25 1.85 / 3.00 — -0.25
1xBet -0.25 2.00 / 2.49 -0.25 1.78 / 2.92 — 0
Betano -0.25 2.05 / 2.57 -0.25 1.91 / 2.85 — 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.90 / 2.72 -0.25 1.77 / 3.05 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 9.00
-1.25 3.98 8.45
-1.00 3.48 7.90
-0.75 2.49 4.65
-0.25 1.78 2.92
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.31 1.88
+0.75 1.12 1.42
+1.00 1.02 1.22

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 3.70 7.00
-0.75 2.68 4.65
-0.50 2.20 3.45
-0.25 1.85 3.00
0 1.52 2.42
+0.25 1.38 1.95
+0.50 1.30 1.65
+0.75 1.18 1.45
+1.00 1.10 1.26

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.77 3.05
0 1.44 2.52
+0.25 1.31 1.90

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.91 2.85
+0.25 1.39 1.83

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.50 9.00
-1.25 3.98 8.50
-1.00 3.48 7.90
-0.75 2.49 4.65
-0.25 1.76 2.92
0 1.45 2.47
+0.25 1.31 1.86
+0.75 1.12 1.42
+1.00 1.02 1.22

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.65 5.06
-0.50 2.17 3.78
-0.25 1.84 3.24
0 1.50 2.66
+0.25 1.36 2.02
+0.50 1.27 1.71
+0.75 1.18 1.50
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

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