Deportivo Moron vs Godoy Cruz Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Deportivo Moron
Final Score
1 – 2
(HT 1-1)
Godoy Cruz
Kick-off 18:00 Stadium Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Deportivo Moron opened at -0.25 against Godoy Cruz in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.20
Deportivo Moron -0.20

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

xG (pre-match) 1.41 / 1.19
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Deportivo Moron -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.05
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.05 AH points more toward Godoy Cruz than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Godoy Cruz +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.05
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.94
Price Advantage
+59.8%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
04:09
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:00
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.64 / 3.20 -0.25 1.85 / 2.74 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 2.00 / 2.99 -0.25 2.00 / 2.99 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.95 / 3.10 -0.25 1.95 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.66 / 3.20 -0.25 1.95 / 2.98 -0.25 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 3.10 -0.25 1.87 / 3.00 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.71 / 3.20 -0.25 1.87 / 2.82 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.96 7.80
-1.25 4.40 7.96
-1.00 3.83 7.16
-0.75 2.74 4.24
-0.25 1.95 2.98
0 1.56 2.42
+0.25 1.36 1.85
+0.75 1.15 1.42
+1.00 1.10 1.26
+1.25 1.08 1.21
+1.50 1.02 1.18

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.68 5.00
-0.50 2.20 3.70
-0.25 1.95 3.10
0 1.48 2.60
+0.25 1.35 1.85
+0.50 1.26 1.65
+0.75 1.17 1.45

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 2.82
0 1.52 2.31
+0.25 1.36 1.80

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.87 3.00
+0.25 1.36 1.87

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.70 7.80
-1.25 4.20 7.30
-1.00 3.74 6.75
-0.75 2.66 4.25
-0.25 1.85 2.74
0 1.53 2.27
+0.25 1.35 1.77
+0.75 1.15 1.37
+1.00 1.04 1.19
+1.25 1.03 1.15
+1.50 1.02 1.12

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.95 4.75
-0.50 2.38 3.54
-0.25 2.00 2.99
0 1.59 2.41
+0.25 1.41 1.85
+0.50 1.30 1.60
+0.75 1.19 1.42
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

View Full Audit Report →
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