Club Atlético Güemes vs Midland Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Club Atlético Güemes
Final Score
0 – 2
(HT 0-1)
Midland
Kick-off 20:00 Stadium Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Club Atlético Güemes opened at 0 against Midland in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The handicap moved 0.25 points toward Club Atlético Güemes from the opening line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 6 of 6 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
-0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.34 / 1.26
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Club Atlético Güemes -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 6 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.18
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.18 AH points more toward Midland than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Club Atlético Güemes -0.25
@ 2.73
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.18
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.24
Price Advantage
+21.9%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
6 / 6 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:20
Opening
0
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
19:59
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.96 / 1.71 -0.25 2.49 / 1.96 -0.25 -0.25
Pinnacle SHARP 0 2.03 / 1.78 -0.25 2.73 / 2.10 -0.25 -0.25
Bet365 0 2.08 / 1.72 -0.25 2.68 / 2.05 -0.25 -0.25
1xBet 0 1.96 / 1.71 -0.25 2.52 / 1.96 -0.25 -0.25
Betano -0.25 2.42 / 2.12 -0.25 2.42 / 2.12 -0.25 0
BetVictor 0 1.80 / 1.88 -0.25 2.58 / 1.99 -0.25 -0.25
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 8.65 7.00
-1.50 7.30 5.25
-1.25 6.75 4.74
-1.00 6.15 4.20
-0.75 3.85 2.88
-0.25 2.52 1.96
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.68 1.44
+0.75 1.32 1.18
+1.00 1.15 1.06
+1.25 1.12 1.04
+1.50 1.09 1.03

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 6.80 5.50
-1.25 6.80 4.80
-1.00 6.60 4.25
-0.75 4.10 3.00
-0.50 3.10 2.38
-0.25 2.68 2.05
0 2.20 1.65
+0.25 1.75 1.45
+0.50 1.55 1.35
+0.75 1.38 1.23
+1.00 1.21 1.11
+1.25 1.18 1.10
+1.50 1.15 1.10

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.87 2.34
-0.25 2.58 1.99
0 2.11 1.62
+0.25 1.70 1.42
+0.50 1.51 1.35

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.82 2.50
-0.25 2.42 2.12
+0.25 1.67 1.52
+0.50 1.50 1.40

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.00 7.00
-1.50 7.30 5.25
-1.25 6.75 4.75
-1.00 6.15 4.20
-0.75 3.85 2.88
-0.25 2.49 1.96
0 2.08 1.63
+0.25 1.68 1.42
+0.75 1.32 1.18
+1.00 1.15 1.06
+1.25 1.12 1.04
+1.50 1.09 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 6.10 4.50
-0.75 4.19 3.10
-0.50 3.22 2.49
-0.25 2.73 2.10
0 2.22 1.69
+0.25 1.78 1.47
+0.50 1.56 1.35
+0.75 1.38 1.23
+1.00 1.21 1.14
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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