Atletico DE Rafaela vs San Martin Tucuman Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Atletico DE Rafaela
Final Score
4 – 2
(HT 2-2)
San Martin Tucuman
Kick-off 19:00 Stadium Estadio Nuevo Monumental

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Atletico DE Rafaela opened at 0 against San Martin Tucuman in the Primera Nacional. The current market consensus is 0, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is 0 across 5 of 6 valid books, with 83% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also 0.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.07
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.26 / 1.34
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Atletico DE Rafaela 0
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
0 · 5 / 6 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.07
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.07 AH points more toward San Martin Tucuman than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
San Martin Tucuman 0
@ 2.13
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.07
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.90
Price Advantage
+12.1%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
0
5 / 6 valid books · 83% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
0 → 0
Pinnacle Closing
0
Consensus Closing
0
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
02:20
Opening
0
16:17
Last Pre-Match
0
19:00
PRE1
0
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0
Sharp Consensus
0
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK 0 1.70 / 1.99 0 1.68 / 2.00 0 0
Pinnacle SHARP 0 1.75 / 2.08 0 1.76 / 2.13 0 0
Bet365 0 1.80 / 2.00 0 1.72 / 2.08 0 0
1xBet 0 1.70 / 1.99 0 1.68 / 2.00 0 0
Betano -0.25 2.12 / 2.47 -0.25 2.12 / 2.47 — 0
BetVictor 0 1.69 / 2.00 0 1.69 / 2.01 0 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 7.30
-1.25 5.20 6.74
-1.00 4.65 6.15
-0.75 3.05 3.78
-0.25 2.07 2.43
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.44 1.63
+0.75 1.19 1.28
+1.00 1.06 1.12
+1.25 1.04 1.10
+1.50 1.03 1.07

Bet365 Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.00 6.60
-0.75 3.30 4.00
-0.50 2.50 3.10
-0.25 2.15 2.60
0 1.72 2.08
+0.25 1.48 1.68
+0.50 1.35 1.50
+0.75 1.23 1.32
+1.00 1.11 1.17

BetVictor Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.50 2.95
-0.25 2.10 2.48
0 1.69 2.01
+0.25 1.46 1.63
+0.50 1.33 1.45

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 2.47 2.87
-0.25 2.12 2.47
+0.25 1.50 1.67
+0.50 1.39 1.50

Marathonbet Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.50 5.75 7.30
-1.25 5.20 6.75
-1.00 4.65 6.15
-0.75 3.05 3.78
-0.25 2.05 2.43
0 1.68 2.00
+0.25 1.44 1.62
+0.75 1.19 1.28
+1.00 1.06 1.12
+1.25 1.04 1.10
+1.50 1.03 1.07

Pinnacle Main 0

AH Home Away
-1.00 5.14 6.75
-0.75 3.35 4.15
-0.50 2.64 3.18
-0.25 2.20 2.66
0 1.76 2.13
+0.25 1.50 1.69
+0.50 1.37 1.50
+0.75 1.24 1.33
+1.00 1.12 1.17
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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