Molde II vs Rosenborg II Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Molde II
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 2-0)
Rosenborg II
Kick-off 13:00

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Molde II opened at -0.25 against Rosenborg II in the 3. Division - Girone 2. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 7 valid books, with 57% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is -1.00.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.14
Molde II +0.14

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the away team.

xG (pre-match) 1.22 / 1.38
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Molde II -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 4 / 7 books · Moderate
Model–Market Gap
0.39
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.39 AH points more toward Rosenborg II than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Rosenborg II +0.25
@ 2.44
Best Available Price · BetVictor
Line Edge
0.39
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.62
Price Advantage
+50.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 7 valid books · 57% agreement · Moderate

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → —
Closing not captured
Pinnacle Closing
—
Not captured
Consensus Closing
—
Not captured
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
06:00
Opening
-0.25
12:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
—
PRE1 (Planned)
—
Not captured
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -1.00
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-1.00
1 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
10Bet 0 1.85 / 1.77 0 1.85 / 1.77 — 0
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 2.46 / 1.75 -0.25 2.46 / 1.75 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.50 2.62 / 1.96 -0.75 1.73 / 2.32 — -0.25
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 1.92 -0.25 1.90 / 1.92 — 0
1xBet -0.25 2.63 / 1.69 -0.25 2.63 / 1.69 — 0
Betano -0.25 1.78 / 1.88 -0.25 1.78 / 1.88 — 0
BetVictor 0 2.28 / 1.53 0 1.58 / 2.19 — 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

10Bet Main 0

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.83 1.85
0 1.85 1.77
+0.50 1.77 1.80

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.90 3.58
-1.50 5.40 3.04
-1.25 5.04 2.74
-1.00 4.65 2.46
-0.75 3.48 2.10
-0.25 2.63 1.69
0 2.32 1.52
+0.25 1.95 1.41
+0.75 1.59 1.22
+1.00 1.43 1.12
+1.25 1.35 1.10
+1.50 1.29 1.09
+1.75 1.21 1.04

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 1.82 1.95
-0.25 1.90 1.92
0 1.85 1.95
+0.25 1.88 1.90
+0.75 1.85 1.98

BetVictor Main +0.75

AH Home Away
-1.25 2.21 2.44
-1.00 1.98 2.56
-0.75 1.76 2.34
-0.50 1.62 2.36
-0.25 1.47 2.44
0 1.58 2.19
+0.25 1.47 2.43
+0.50 1.50 2.12
+0.75 1.51 1.92
+1.00 1.43 1.71
+1.25 1.47 1.57

Betano Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 1.75 1.87
-0.50 1.82 1.87
-0.25 1.78 1.88
+0.25 1.72 1.83
+0.50 1.75 1.78
+0.75 1.75 1.85

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 6.50 3.85
-1.50 5.10 3.14
-1.25 4.75 2.88
-1.00 4.40 2.59
-0.75 3.28 2.19
-0.25 2.46 1.75
0 2.21 1.57
+0.25 1.88 1.43
+0.75 1.54 1.25
+1.00 1.39 1.14
+1.25 1.32 1.12
+1.50 1.27 1.10
+1.75 1.18 1.05

Pinnacle Main -1.00

AH Home Away
-1.50 2.26 2.45
-1.25 2.09 2.24
-1.00 1.92 2.48
-0.75 1.73 2.32
-0.50 1.60 2.40
-0.25 1.47 2.22
0 1.64 2.06
+0.25 1.53 2.35
+0.50 1.46 2.09
+0.75 1.51 1.93
+1.00 1.44 1.77
+1.25 1.51 1.62
+1.50 1.42 1.52
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing data was not captured.

View Full Audit Report →
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