Predictions / Football / Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 / Molde II vs Rosenborg II

Prediction Audit: Molde II vs Rosenborg II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Molde II Molde II
Aug 17, 2026 - 13:00
3 1.22
0 1.38
xG Accuracy: 42%
Rosenborg II Rosenborg II

The model missed the final outcome (Molde II win 3–0).

The model had projected Rosenborg II at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rosenborg II Molde II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Molde II win 3–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 17, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Molde II 1.22 — Rosenborg II 1.38
  2. Aug 17, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Molde II win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 02:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3617101

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Molde II win · Molde II 3–0 Rosenborg II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Division - Girone 2
  • Fixture: Molde II vs Rosenborg II
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-17 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Molde II 1.22 — Rosenborg II 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Division - Girone 2 3. Division - Girone 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Volda 22 15 4 3 49
2 Strindheim 22 14 4 4 46
3 Melhus 22 11 5 6 38
4 Byåsen 22 11 4 7 37
5 Molde II 22 9 5 8 32
6 Rosenborg II 22 9 4 9 31
7 Herd 22 8 5 9 29
8 Spjelkavik 22 8 4 10 28
9 Nardo 21 8 2 11 26
10 Ranheim II 22 7 5 10 26
11 NTNUI 22 6 7 9 25
12 Kvik Trondheim 22 6 4 12 22
13 Orkla 22 5 5 12 20
14 Aalesund II 21 6 2 13 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Molde II 22 61 69 -8 32
2 Volda 22 59 24 +35 49
3 Strindheim 22 58 30 +28 46
4 Ranheim II 22 58 71 -13 26
5 Melhus 22 52 28 +24 38
6 Rosenborg II 22 50 40 +10 31
7 Byåsen 22 49 40 +9 37
8 Herd 22 47 44 +3 29
9 Nardo 21 47 46 +1 26
10 Spjelkavik 22 41 48 -7 28
11 Orkla 22 40 62 -22 20
12 Aalesund II 21 38 62 -24 20
13 NTNUI 22 34 48 -14 25
14 Kvik Trondheim 22 32 54 -22 22
3. Division - Girone 2 Norway. 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions