Haugesund vs Stabaek Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Haugesund
Oct 03, 2026 - 14:00
1.32 1.28
Stabaek
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Haugesund opened at -0.25 against Stabaek in the 1. Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Haugesund -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.21
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.21 AH points more toward Stabaek than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Stabaek +0.25
@ 3.05
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.21
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.77
Price Advantage
+72.3%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.61 / 2.86 -0.25 1.61 / 2.86 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.66 / 3.04 -0.25 1.66 / 3.05 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.00 -0.25 1.65 / 3.00 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.64 / 2.86 -0.25 1.64 / 2.86 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.04
xG 1.32 / 1.28 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.66
Haugesund @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.30
Haugesund @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.66 vs 2.30
Market price is 27.8% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.42 7.90
-1.50 2.88 6.15
-1.25 2.59 5.79
-1.00 2.33 5.40
-0.75 1.99 3.92
-0.25 1.64 2.86
0 1.44 2.59
+0.25 1.33 2.12
+0.75 1.18 1.66
+1.00 1.09 1.48
+1.25 1.07 1.39
+1.50 1.06 1.32
+1.75 1.02 1.23

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.00 6.40
-1.25 2.68 6.00
-1.00 2.38 5.75
-0.75 2.05 4.10
-0.50 1.85 3.45
-0.25 1.65 3.00
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.38 2.20
+0.50 1.30 1.95
+0.75 1.23 1.75
+1.00 1.14 1.55
+1.25 1.12 1.45
+1.50 1.12 1.38

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 3.42 7.90
-1.50 2.88 6.15
-1.25 2.59 5.80
-1.00 2.33 5.40
-0.75 1.99 3.92
-0.25 1.61 2.86
0 1.44 2.59
+0.25 1.33 2.08
+0.75 1.18 1.66
+1.00 1.09 1.48
+1.25 1.07 1.39
+1.50 1.06 1.32
+1.75 1.02 1.23

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.86 3.39
-0.25 1.66 3.05
0 1.46 2.70
+0.25 1.37 2.21
+0.50 1.31 1.93
Primary Bets
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