Orange County SC vs Monterey Bay Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Orange County SC
Oct 04, 2026 - 02:00
1.46 1.14
Monterey Bay
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
4 / 4 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Orange County SC opened at -0.25 against Monterey Bay in the USL Championship. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 4 of 4 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
Orange County SC -0.29

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model fair line is toward the home team.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Orange County SC -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.04
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 4 / 4 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.04 AH points more toward Orange County SC than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Monterey Bay +0.25
@ 3.10
Best Available Price · Bet365
Line Edge
0.04
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.05
Price Advantage
+51.2%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
4 / 4 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.66 / 2.83 -0.25 1.66 / 2.83 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.72 / 3.03 -0.25 1.72 / 3.03 — 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 -0.25 1.68 / 3.10 — 0
1xBet -0.25 1.68 / 2.83 -0.25 1.68 / 2.83 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.29
xG 1.46 / 1.14 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
1.72
Orange County SC @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
1.96
Orange County SC @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
1.72 vs 1.96
Market price is 12.2% below model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.42 7.10
-1.25 3.05 6.65
-1.00 2.70 6.15
-0.75 2.15 4.14
-0.25 1.68 2.83
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.33 2.01
+0.75 1.16 1.56
+1.00 1.06 1.36
+1.25 1.05 1.28
+1.50 1.04 1.23

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 2.68 6.60
-0.75 2.20 4.40
-0.50 1.95 3.55
-0.25 1.68 3.10
0 1.45 2.68
+0.25 1.35 2.15
+0.50 1.27 1.85
+0.75 1.20 1.65
+1.00 1.11 1.45

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 3.42 7.10
-1.25 3.05 6.65
-1.00 2.70 6.15
-0.75 2.15 4.15
-0.25 1.66 2.83
0 1.44 2.50
+0.25 1.33 1.99
+0.75 1.16 1.56
+1.00 1.06 1.36
+1.25 1.05 1.28
+1.50 1.04 1.23

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.50 1.98 3.44
-0.25 1.72 3.03
0 1.48 2.62
+0.25 1.36 2.09
+0.50 1.29 1.83
Primary Bets
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