Finn Harps vs Kerry Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Finn Harps
Oct 02, 2026 - 18:45
1.33 1.27
Kerry
Opening
-0.25
Frozen opening consensus
Current
-0.25
Current tradable main consensus
Closing
—
Not captured yet
Sharp Reference (Pinnacle)
-0.25
Consensus ? Current consensus from tradable pricing-grade bookmaker mains. Ties are resolved using Pinnacle. Stored mains are a historical snapshot and are not used for Gap, Fair Odds, or Decision.
-0.25
3 / 3 books · 100% agreement · Strong
Line Move
0
Frozen opening → current main

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Finn Harps opened at -0.25 against Kerry in the First Division. The current market consensus is -0.25. The current consensus is -0.25 across 3 of 3 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

Asian Handicap Prediction
Fair Line is where the model prices the match. Decision is whether the difference is currently tradable.
Prediction
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

Market
Tradable Consensus
Finn Harps -0.25
Model–Market Gap
0.20
handicap points
Raw Main-Line Snapshot

-0.25 · 3 / 3 books · Strong

Historical bookmaker-main snapshot; not used for tradable pricing.

Model prices the match 0.20 AH points more toward Kerry than the current market.

Decision
LEAN
Finn Harps -0.25
@ 3.12
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.20
handicap points
Model Fair Price
2.27
Price Advantage
+37.4%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
3 / 3 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Current Cur H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 -0.25 2.88 / 1.64 — 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 3.09 / 1.67 -0.25 3.12 / 1.68 — 0
1xBet -0.25 3.20 / 1.53 -0.25 2.90 / 1.64 — 0
Model Pricing
Market Intelligence ≠ prediction. Fair handicap is where expected settlement ≈ 0 at fair odds — not 50% cover.
Model Fair Handicap
-0.05
xG 1.33 / 1.27 · pre-match
Market Handicap
-0.25
Current tradable consensus
Market Odds
3.12
Finn Harps @ -0.25 · Market reference
Fair Odds
2.27
Finn Harps @ -0.25 · Model fair price
Market Odds vs Fair
3.12 vs 2.27
Market price is 37.4% above model fair price. Not betting EV

The handicap at which the model's expected settlement return is approximately zero at fair odds.

Current Asian Handicap Lines
Live pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-2.00 9.80 6.20
-1.75 8.60 4.30
-1.50 7.40 3.34
-1.25 6.89 3.04
-1.00 6.40 2.66
-0.75 4.20 2.13
-0.25 2.90 1.64
0 2.53 1.43
+0.25 2.02 1.33
+0.75 1.57 1.15
+1.00 1.37 1.05
+1.25 1.29 1.04
+1.50 1.24 1.03

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 9.10 4.30
-1.50 7.40 3.34
-1.25 6.90 3.04
-1.00 6.40 2.66
-0.75 4.20 2.13
-0.25 2.88 1.64
0 2.53 1.43
+0.25 2.02 1.32
+0.75 1.57 1.15
+1.00 1.37 1.05
+1.25 1.29 1.04
+1.50 1.24 1.03

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.00 4.92 2.75
-0.75 3.54 2.20
-0.50 3.52 1.92
-0.25 3.12 1.68
0 2.72 1.45
+0.25 2.17 1.35
+0.50 1.88 1.28
+0.75 1.66 1.28
+1.00 1.44 1.17
Primary Bets
More