Athlone Town vs Kerry Asian Handicap

Model fair handicap from pre-match xG, compared with the tradable market.

Athlone Town
Final Score
3 – 0
(HT 1-0)
Kerry
Kick-off 18:45 Stadium Athlone Town Stadium

Asian Handicap – Pre-Match Analysis (Historical Snapshot)

All data is pre-match unless stated.

Asian Handicap Market Summary

Athlone Town opened at -0.25 against Kerry in the First Division. The current market consensus is -0.25, the same as the closing line. The current consensus is -0.25 across 5 of 5 valid books, with 100% agreement. Pinnacle's current reference line is also -0.25.

1Model Prediction (Pre-Match)
Model Fair Handicap
+0.04
Approximately Level (0)

Model pricing view — not a bet. Model sees the match close to a level handicap.

xG (pre-match) 1.28 / 1.32
H / A
2Market (Pre-Match)
Last Pre-Match Consensus
Athlone Town -0.25
Raw Main-Line Snapshot
-0.25 · 5 / 5 books · Strong
Model–Market Gap
0.29
handicap points

Model prices the match 0.29 AH points more toward Kerry than the current market.

3Pre-Match Decision
LEAN
Kerry +0.25
@ 2.73
Best Available Price · Pinnacle
Line Edge
0.29
handicap points
Model Fair Price
1.70
Price Advantage
+60.6%
vs model fair

Not a Primary Bet

Price Advantage is best available vs model fair — a pricing metric, not a model edge.

Pricing Quality
Tradable Pricing Consensus
-0.25
5 / 5 valid books · 100% agreement · Strong

Decision uses tradable pricing books, not the raw main-line snapshot.

Decision Time
(Pre-match)
4Market Validation (Historical)

Opening → Closing is a market fact. It is not AH-CLV — CLV needs a timed signal.

Opening → Closing
-0.25 → -0.25
Pinnacle Closing
-0.25
Consensus Closing
-0.25
Pre-Match Historical Consensus Snapshots
When the running consensus changed before kick-off — not the frozen opening/current strip. Closing is PRE1, not CLV.
Consensus Line Planned Closing
03:00
Opening
-0.25
18:00
Last Pre-Match
-0.25
18:44
PRE1
-0.25
Sharp Market
Observation only. Pinnacle remains the Sharp Reference ruler — this does not change Fair Line, Decision, or CLV.
Sharp Reference
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25
Sharp Consensus
-0.25
2 / 2 books
Sharp Divergence
—
No divergence
Bookmaker Main Lines (Pre-Match)
Opening never overwritten. Stored line is home-perspective.
Book Opening Open H / A Last Pre-Match Pre-Match H / A Closing Line Move
Marathonbet SHARP BOOK -0.25 1.81 / 2.59 -0.25 1.84 / 2.52 -0.25 0
Pinnacle SHARP -0.25 1.90 / 2.76 -0.25 1.97 / 2.73 -0.25 0
Bet365 -0.25 1.90 / 2.68 -0.25 1.92 / 2.60 -0.25 0
1xBet -0.25 1.83 / 2.59 -0.25 1.86 / 2.52 -0.25 0
BetVictor -0.25 1.70 / 2.20 -0.25 1.69 / 2.23 -0.25 0
Last Pre-Match Asian Handicap Lines (Snapshot)
Last captured pre-match market snapshot. Lines are shown from the home-team perspective. Each bookmaker's own main line is highlighted — not the fixture consensus.

1xBet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 8.60
-1.50 4.20 6.45
-1.25 3.78 5.95
-1.00 3.34 5.50
-0.75 2.52 3.72
-0.25 1.86 2.52
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.80
+0.75 1.20 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.24
+1.25 1.07 1.19
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Bet365 Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.50 4.15 6.40
-1.25 3.70 5.90
-1.00 3.45 5.50
-0.75 2.60 3.70
-0.50 2.20 3.00
-0.25 1.92 2.60
0 1.62 2.25
+0.25 1.48 1.88
+0.50 1.38 1.65
+0.75 1.26 1.48
+1.00 1.15 1.30
+1.25 1.13 1.26
+1.50 1.12 1.22

BetVictor Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.25 1.69 2.23
0 1.46 1.94
+0.25 1.33 1.64

Marathonbet Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-1.75 5.45 8.60
-1.50 4.20 6.45
-1.25 3.78 5.95
-1.00 3.34 5.50
-0.75 2.52 3.72
-0.25 1.84 2.52
0 1.58 2.17
+0.25 1.41 1.78
+0.75 1.20 1.41
+1.00 1.08 1.24
+1.25 1.07 1.19
+1.50 1.05 1.15

Pinnacle Main -0.25

AH Home Away
-0.75 2.73 4.02
-0.50 2.28 3.15
-0.25 1.97 2.73
0 1.65 2.30
+0.25 1.47 1.88
+0.50 1.36 1.65
+0.75 1.25 1.47
Post-Match Audit (Summary)

A priced lean was issued pre-match — not a Primary Bet. Closing was captured at PRE1.

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